China’s foreign trade picked up significantly in September despite the ongoing trade dispute with the USA. As the customs authorities in Beijing announced, exports measured in US dollars increased by 8.3 percent compared to the same month last year. At the same time, imports grew by 7.4 percent. The trade surplus was therefore around 90.45 billion US dollars (currently around 77.8 billion euros).
Foreign trade in the world’s second largest economy thus exceeded analysts’ expectations. Imports reached their highest growth rate since April 2024. Market observers had previously expected an increase in exports in September of around 6 percent and an increase in imports of just 1.5 percent.
This is how China justifies its export rates
The customs justified the fact that China’s exports are steadily increasing despite global trade difficulties, among other things, with the growing exports of the manufacturing sector over the last eight years. Exports of high-tech products such as electric cars and agricultural machinery also contributed to the development, said Customs Vice Minister Wang Jun.
China’s trade is proving resilient despite the trade conflict with Washington after exports to the most important consumer market, the USA, collapsed. In September, exports there (minus 27 percent) and imports (minus 16.1 percent) fell significantly compared to a year earlier.
The list of US-China disputes is getting longer
There is currently a pause in the customs dispute. A few days ago, however, US President Donald Trump threatened further tariffs of 100 percent from November 1st and restrictions on software exports to China. Beijing, on the other hand, wants to tighten the noose on rare earths: a further five of the 17 elements should only be able to be exported with approval. The measures are likely to have a significant impact on many sectors and the defense industry outside of China.
“Even German companies whose products contain only minimal amounts of rare earths are now explicitly subject to the new export controls,” said Maximilian Butek, executive board member of the German Chamber of Commerce in East China. The threshold is so low that the regulation applies practically across the board. “Right now there is a need for closer exchange between the German and Chinese governments and more speed with export permits,” he said.
The list of controversial issues is getting longer: China stopped buying soy from the USA for months, meaning that US farmers who are considered Trump voters lost a key customer. In addition, the deal to sell the US business of the video platform Tiktok has not yet been completed. Meanwhile, the USA is trying to keep important chip technology away from China, which is important for the development of artificial intelligence.
Where China now ships its goods
Due to the high markups in the US market, the Chinese are now moving their goods to Southeast Asia or Africa. The September data also showed this: exports to the so-called Asean countries rose by 15.6 percent compared to the same month last year. The economic area remains China’s largest trading partner, said customs spokesman Lü Daliang. According to customs, exports to Africa increased by around 56 percent in September.
China exported 10.9 percent more to Germany in September. Imports from the Federal Republic only increased slightly by 1.8 percent. “The low imports from Germany are also related to the fact that German companies are deeply localized in China and produce in China for the Chinese market,” said Butek. This applies to all industries, particularly in the automotive sector and mechanical engineering. “This is driven not least by tough competition and regulatory requirements in China,” explained Butek.
Where China’s economy is struggling
Germany and Europe are plagued by the fact that China imports little. In China, demand is too low compared to the existing supply. The result: For months, sectors such as the auto, steel and delivery services industries have been engaged in bitter price wars that are putting pressure on companies’ profits. Beijing has already summoned industry leaders to the relevant ministries to counter the price war in order to stop the phenomenon. In some sectors, control measures such as price floors or lowered production targets are expected.
According to Beijing’s wishes, China’s economy is expected to grow by around five percent this year. The growth data for the third quarter and a meeting of the Communist Party at which the upcoming five-year plan will be discussed are therefore eagerly awaited next week.
Experts point out that Beijing’s reforms have so far been aimed primarily at the production side, but not enough is being done to stimulate demand. In addition, people’s confidence in consuming more has been shaken by high youth unemployment and concerns about the continued difficult situation in the real estate market, in which many Chinese have invested.
