US presidential election: Democrats are losing faith in Biden

Annoyed voters, overwhelmed officials and constant talk about his age: “Every time Democrats come on TV and say the president is doing a good job but he’s 80 years old, they’re fueling the desire for an alternative candidate,” complains Emanuel Cleaver, a representative from Kansas City. His Democratic party colleague Ben Wikler from Wisconsin even believes the party is in an “existential crisis.” In Wisconsin, of all places, where workers were once the steel backbone of the Democrats.

Two old white men are fighting for space in the White House

But old certainties no longer apply in the USA. The only thing that is certain is that the madness called the US presidential election campaign will soon pick up speed again. It starts in mid-January with the first primaries. Eleven months later, i.e. in just under a year, the last, closest races should also be counted. And it will definitely be tight. At least if, like in 2020, there will be a duel between Joe Biden and Donald Trump – which is what it looks like at the moment.

The coming vote will be unprecedented: never before have two men of such an advanced age competed against each other (Joe Biden is 81, Donald Trump will be 78). No candidate has ever had to appear in court before and during the election campaign, even several times (Donald Trump). And never before have the two candidates, an incumbent and an elected US president, been so unpopular.

As of now, the election will end bitterly, especially for the Democrats: According to current polls, they would lose the White House as well as the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Republicans. The new and old president would then be called Donald Trump and could rule with the help of his majority in both chambers of parliament. In the event, he has already announced revenge campaigns against his opponents. Trump recently announced that he would “eradicate” them like “vermin.” He counts Joe Biden among them.

A nightmare for center-left America

This is still just one of many scenarios that are conceivable after voting day on November 5, 2024 – but anything but unlikely. Should this nightmare come true for center-left America, the people most responsible could come from the ranks of the Democrats: Joe Manchin, Senator from West Virginia, and Joe Biden, head of the White House.

Manchin, a notorious obstructionist, recently announced that he would not run for senator again. That was actually good news for the party, because the 76-year-old had repeatedly torpedoed his own government’s plans with his one-against-all approach. He doesn’t say anything good about Joe Biden either: He has drifted to the left, even “to the extreme left corner,” said Manchin as a farewell greeting.

Manchin’s heart, like that of his native West Virginia, is conservative. His successor in the Senate is therefore likely to be a Republican. Then the already ultra-tight Democratic majority of just one vote would be gone.

But the main problem for the Democrats should actually be the main attraction: President Biden. A few days ago, a New York Times poll shocked the White House. Accordingly, Biden would lose to Donald Trump in five of the six electorally decisive states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The former head of state’s lead over the incumbent is narrow and within the usual margin of error, but Biden’s fading has long been noticeable, even within his own party.

Obama advisor doubts Biden success

After the disastrous numbers were out in the world, people came forward David Axelrod speaks, Former adviser to Barack Obama. He publicly criticized Joe Biden: His decision to run for president again would cause doubts in the party, he wrote on the online service X (formerly Twitter). Biden, who had joked about his age on his 81st birthday at the beginning of the week, then called Axelrod a “shithead” behind closed doors. It didn’t matter to him: he should, Axelrod told the New York Times. The team is mistaken if it believes that Donald Trump will beat himself. “Biden’s chances of winning are fifty-fifty, rather less,” said the Democrat undeterred.

According to estimates, the upcoming presidential election campaign will cost up to ten billion dollars. A huge amount of money, which is only spent in the swing states because of the US electoral system. For the Democrats, for example, states like California and New York are a safe bet and the election campaign there is almost unnecessary. In contrast to Georgia or Michigan, where both parties are neck and neck. That’s where millions flow, that’s where the elections are decided.

The five swing states that are currently trending towards Trump focus like magnifying glasses on candidate Joe Biden’s big problems. The biggest thing is his age, but then there are the many small and large crises that are affecting people, not just in the USA.

Joe Biden will be 82 years old two weeks after the 2024 presidential election, and he would be 86 at the end of a second term in office. The Democrat already often appears dodgy and confused. It is said that his advisors would recommend that he walk short distances in public and wear sneakers so that he does not risk falling – as has happened more often recently.

“I celebrate President Biden, but…”

Because of such incidents, three quarters of all US citizens no longer trust him to have another pass in the White House. Neither do many of his party colleagues. Representative Dean Phillips from Minnesota, for example, now said: “I celebrate President Biden, but I am disappointed that he is not passing the torch.” During the last election campaign, he at least hinted at handing over the office to his Vice President Kamala Harris at some point. But she acted rather unhappy and he felt increasingly irreplaceable.

Even the Biden administration’s economic successes don’t always work: “They fall on deaf ears here,” says Democrat voter David Martinez from the hotly contested Arizona. “People here are so annoyed with Biden, inflation and his age that they either want to give Trump a second chance or skip the election entirely,” said the IT specialist in the New York Times.

Maya Siegmann, a student and activist from the former Democratic stronghold of Michigan, puts her unease about the man in the White House this way: “I think there should be an age limit for people in the Oval Office. I’m grateful that Biden supports Israel, “But I would rather have someone younger in office,” the woman from Detroit told CNN.

Until a few years ago, Pennsylvania on the east coast was part of the “Blue Belt”, an impregnable Democratic stronghold, named after the blue party color. Today, however, the local associations are sinking into chaos and dragging Biden’s election chances into the abyss. “The hour of the amateurs,” “shitty catastrophe,” say employees anonymously. The reasons are incorrectly printed voting cards, lack of money, dismissed election workers and a general lack of trust in the party leadership. “Pennsylvania is the biggest battleground state in the country and we have an incompetent lazy guy who has no idea how to run a party,” says one lawmaker.

“Whoever wins Wisconsin goes to the White House”

Wisconsin, nicknamed “America’s Dairy,” was once one of the “Blue Belt” states. Here the Democrats have actually moved into the left-progressive corner, but their fight against racism and gender issues is not well received by everyone. Educated white men, for example, are turning away from the Democrats, and even trade unionists no longer reliably vote blue – even though Biden has acted as one of their own all his life. For Ben Wikler, the local party leader, everything is at stake next year: “Whoever wins Wisconsin goes to the White House. It feels like the biggest fight.”

Sources: “New York Times”, 270towin.com, CNBC,”Politico“, David Axelrod on Twitter, CNN, daily News“Vanity Fair“, “The Atlantic“, NBC, NPR