The peace efforts in Gaza, the war in Ukraine and the management of migration are likely to be among the main topics of Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s inaugural visit to Turkey. In the afternoon, the CDU leader left Berlin for his 23-hour stay in Ankara, where he will meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Thursday.
With the composition of his delegation, he is already sending a signal that this is more than just a routine visit. Surprisingly, his wife Charlotte is also there. A purely bilateral visit by the Chancellor accompanied by his wife is unusual – unlike certain summits on special celebratory occasions. In the last six months since the Chancellor took office, Charlotte Merz had accompanied her husband to the G7 summit in Canada and to the Pope’s inauguration in Rome.
For Merz, it is one of his most important inaugural visits. He wants to put a positive spin on the relationship with Turkey that has been very difficult in recent years. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul set the tone for this during his visit to Ankara almost two weeks ago. Turkey is a “strategic partner in all our foreign policy issues and a good friend,” he said. “We want an overall positive agenda.”
There was no direct criticism of the way the opposition and civil society were treated, at least on an open stage. It is unclear to what extent the new arrest warrant against the Turkish opposition politician Ekrem Imamoglu or the issues of the rule of law and human rights as a whole will now play a role in Merz’s visit. The non-governmental organizations Reporters Without Borders and Human Rights Watch have demanded clear words from Merz.
Topic number one: The Gaza conflict
Merz and Erdogan last saw each other a good two weeks ago at US President Donald Trump’s historic peace ceremony for Gaza in Egypt. The ceasefire that was sealed at the time is now fragile. On Wednesday night, Israel bombed targets in the Gaza Strip after an Israeli soldier was killed there. Even if the Israeli armed forces now want to observe the ceasefire again, the situation in Gaza is likely to be a dominant topic at the meeting in Ankara.
Erdogan has repeatedly attacked Israel over the military action in the Gaza Strip and described the Islamist Hamas as a “resistance organization.” But Turkey has also played an important role in the negotiations between the two sides.
The NATO country has good contacts with Hamas, whose officials are not only in Qatar but also in Turkey. The trust that Erdogan enjoys in Hamas could play an important role in implementing the desired second phase of the agreement, which should also include the disarmament of the terrorist organization.
Ukraine war: Ankara in a mediator role
Turkey also has good relations with Russia and Ukraine and has already hosted talks between the two parties. The mediator role also means that Turkey is not taking part in sanctions against Russia. On the contrary: Ankara sources large quantities of oil and gas from the country whose armed forces invaded Ukraine more than three years ago.
No new impetus for peace efforts can be expected from the meeting between Merz and Erdogan. For months everyone has been watching what US President Donald Trump is doing. Most recently, Trump’s planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest did not take place.
Migration: deportation to Syria via Turkey?
Turkey has been a key partner of Germany and the EU in refugee policy for years. An agreement has been in place since 2016 to prevent migration from Turkey to the Greek islands. In return, the EU pays billions in aid to care for refugees, but also to expand the borders.
Turkey has taken in millions of refugees from the former civil war country of Syria and maintains good relations with the Syrian transitional government. If necessary, the government in Ankara could also help with the deportation of Syrian criminals without the right to remain in Germany.
Turkey is also one of the main countries of origin for asylum applications in Germany. The traffic light government had already tried to speed up the return of rejected applicants to Turkey. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, there are currently 22,560 people – almost ten percent of all asylum seekers who are obliged to leave the country.
Armaments cooperation: Eurofighter deal as a breakthrough
Because of the Turkish invasion of Syria in 2016, the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) at the time imposed a comprehensive arms export ban on Turkey. Her successor Olaf Scholz (SPD) made the U-turn a year ago and once again allowed military exports for the NATO partner on a larger scale. The Merz government is now continuing this course.
On Monday, a billion-dollar deal for the delivery of 20 new Eurofighter fighter jets was concluded with German approval and participation. A deal with great symbolic significance.
Merz’s visit to Ankara will now be about what else is possible. During his trip to Turkey, Wadephul spoke of “several projects” that were about to be finalized. It is “a given that our defense industries cooperate very closely with each other,” he said.
The Imamoglu case: will it play a role?
The deposed Istanbul mayor Imamoglu has been in custody without charges since March. At the time, SPD leader Lars Klingbeil described the imprisonment as a “serious attack” on democracy in Turkey. Criticism from the Union was already much more cautious back then.
Shortly before March, another arrest warrant was issued against Imamoglu. The SPD foreign policy expert Ralf Stegner expects the Chancellor to address this. “Regardless of important bilateral issues and common challenges for Germany and Turkey, such explosive points must of course be raised when the Chancellor meets the Turkish President,” he says.
