It is clear that until January 2025 the star and most important program, the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada – also known as T-MEC –, which in turn represents one of the largest commercial markets in the world , will not have any relevant modification in its structure or dynamism. Among other things, this is because, in both the United States and Mexico, we will hold one-of-a-kind presidential elections. Not only will they be elections that will affect more than 450 million people, but they are also elections that will put the preservation of the democratic essence on trial, especially in a country like the United States that has been boasting for more than 250 years that it is the best and largest democracy in the world.
López Obrador has never believed in large treaties or agreements that require such a level of commitment as, for example, that required by the T-MEC. The Mexican President has never really felt very linked to the destiny of the country at the international level, but rather, deep down and when he is alone, he is bothered by the intervention and conditioning that come with those agreements that modified or will modify the autonomous capacity to regulate, legislate or decide on the internal destiny of the country. President López Obrador never liked and still does not like sharing power in any sphere or area. He did not like him internally, and that is why he has acted as he has acted, much less did he like doing it internationally; Proof of this are the results of the foreign policy exercised during this six-year term.
If Donald Trump finally manages to reawaken that intense patriotism rooted in the hearts of many Americans; if he manages to avoid and get away from the judicial processes in which he is involved; If he manages to get the money to pay the millions of dollars he owes for having been found guilty in some civil lawsuits, and if – as a consequence – he manages to win the elections, he will be a president willing – as he has already said – to overturn everything that is on the table, especially in relation to large defensive agreements, such as the NATO agreement. Furthermore, we must be aware that Trump’s world is alien to what could be logical or normal for most people. The former US president had great successes during his mandate, for example, the imposition of tariffs that, although it unleashed a trade war with China, managed to partially contain the overwhelming Chinese growth and interference in the world.
The only thing that interests Donald Trump more than his own figure is making America great again. However, for him America begins and ends in the territorial limits of the country with the stars and stripes flag. Therefore, in relation to the T-MEC, until January 2025 there is not much we can expect, neither from the meetings of the trilateral panels nor from any substantial change that could allow Mexico to not only continue being the main trading partner of the United States. United States, but also to give it the opportunity to position itself as a diamond in the rough with significant growth in the medium term and an important player in the modern economy. We will have to wait and, above all, see if whoever succeeds López Obrador and whoever ends up occupying the Oval Office have the same intentions and the idea that Mexico’s economic potential is yet to explode.
As a consequence of the technological and communications revolution, habits exploded and the blessed social networks were born. If Barack Obama was the first president, the son of YouTube, without a doubt this battle marks the end of what a world of neighborhood and goalkeepers means where everyone can spit to see who goes the furthest without being linked to political campaigns and subjected to the obligation to tell the truth or under torture. I have the impression that this campaign – both in the United States and in Mexico – is going to mean a turning point and will be something that gives way to a rebalance between the pressure of the virtual fence and the manifestation of political action to sell a product.
In any case, President López Obrador is tightening the rope and is tightening it to such a point that we will see how far it will hold or if it ends up breaking. In any case, it is necessary to observe that what he is carrying out is the most intelligent campaign to benefit his candidate. Everything he jeopardizes, compromises or pressures is what his candidate could fix and emerge as a hero, no matter how radical the decisions and actions taken. In case that were not enough and in case at times he forgets where he comes from and where he has to go, there is the modification of the revocation of the mandate to remind him – if there were a miracle and Claudia was not the one chosen – to Either of the two, this ends with the hard core of Morena the moment the President wants it.
At all times and under any circumstances it is necessary to understand and capture the signals well. I am pleased and glad that the fireworks and theoretical approaches are over, this is simply a campaign that is the most decisive of our lives. Commonly, that is said of all campaigns, but, unlike the others, on this occasion the American crisis comes together with our own crises, with the redefinition of the role of the world of organized crime, the limits of the State and how it can be built. an economic development without legal guarantees, without energy guarantees, without water guarantees and, what is more important, without guarantees that the country does not become more and more similar every day – even if it is imperceptible – to what the Green Zone in Baghdad was after of the 2003 US invasion.
In Mexico City it seems that there is a deceptive tranquility and mirage as if nothing were happening, but the reality is that everything is happening. It is enough to go and tour the different peripheries of CDMX to know that in any place you can be assaulted by the absence of the law and the disorder imposed by the new order which, in turn, is the one that emanates from the territorial conquest of the organized crime groups.
That’s the lesson. On the one hand, above, at the top, the rope is being tightened to see if it breaks. On the other hand, as long as you manage to intimidate others with your actions, Claudia will come to fix what has been done and, therefore, everything will be profit. I have the feeling that Mexico City is being irremediably lost. What’s more, when I read the presidential sentence on gentrification in the capital, I understood that this would not be Morena’s Stalingrad. That is, it is decided to abandon everything by the majority in Congress and the Senate.
Assuming that there is no turning back for the Presidency – which is a lot to assume –, which is actually where all the efforts are concentrated, what needs to be known is that, in no way, can there be an interruption of the President’s political program and from its political arm, which is Morena, neither in Congress nor in the Senate. Something elementary will be left for another time, which is the breaking of the federal pact. We have always known that the Budget equals politics. However, at this moment the governors seem like mayors, and the Budget – according to their own confession in one of the many videos, who knows if it is true – is no longer managed by the governors, but everything is managed from the presidential will. And if the governors do not have a budget and cannot operate with their own electoral instruments, tell me the difference between a mayor who makes floral arrangements and a governor without weapons, without money and without a project for his state. But for now that is not a priority and will be left for later; For now we will have to contemplate the real battle, which will be the one that wins those who can impose their laws, their will and their model of the country, both in San Lázaro and in the Senate.
