Many Munich security conferences have quickly been forgotten. The 61st edition of the world’s most important expert meeting on security policy will definitely be different. With his frontal attack on the European democracies, the deputy of US President Donald Trump shaked the transatlantic partnership to the mark. The speech by US Vice President JD Vance will have a long-standing sustainable and possibly serious consequences when visiting Europe-for G7 and NATO, Ukraine and the world order as a whole. Five teachings from three memorable days in Munich.
1. The West disintegrates
How can the Ukraine War be ended? How do you organize the load distribution in the defense of the alliance area in NATO? Do the US troops withdraw from Europe? The European allies and offers of the cooperation between Vance had hoped for these questions. However, his speech had practically nothing to do with security policy. He was not primarily concerned about external threats, he said. “Because of the danger from the inside, I am concerned that Europe could withdraw from some of the fundamental values, from values that are shared with the USA.”
Vance criticized the struggle of Europeans against disinformation as a restriction of freedom of expression and the exclusion of parties such as the AfD as undemocratic. He goes to the core of the western alliance, the common idea of what democracy means. This consensus no longer exists in the Trump era. “The western community of value has now been canceled here yesterday,” Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) summed it up. The American government “faced the side of the autocrats”.
The consequences are not foreseeable. For example, how should the collaboration between the USA and the European allies in the G7, the group of economic democracies, still work? And what does NATO become a central pillar of cooperation between the USA, Canada and Europe? This will be shown at the latest at two summits in the these two formats in June.
The British historian Timothy Snyder now sees Germany in the fight for democratic values. “Germany is the most important democracy in the world today,” he said in the “Stern” interview and added to the Bundestag election: “What happens in these elections will have an enormous impact on the rest of the world.”
2. Europe without plan and outside
But what answer does the EU have on Trump now? In Munich it became clear that it was caught cold by the new US course. The Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama said on Sunday as an outsider observer that it seems to him all this like two Netflix series in parallel: here the American “One-Sheriff Show” and on the other hand the EU as a “patient with 27 doctors”- alluding to the number of members of the European Union.
So far there is no common EU strategy for dealing with Trump. For too long, many Europeans had hoped that he would lose the choice. Now very different actors have to find a common line very quickly: from Trump friend Viktor Orbán in Hungary, through the right-wing national Giorgia Meloni in Italy to Trump critics such as Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD).
The big question is whether this succeeds in the European in view of the US course based on national interests – and if so, how quickly. There is a first nail test on this Monday: Scholz and other European heads of state and government want to advise on a short-term special meeting in Paris about how they want to deal with the new Ukraine policy of the US government. This aims to force Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj and Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin in negotiations on the end of the war.
At the security conference, the Europeans called for a central place at the negotiating table, but the US special officer Keith Kellogg caught a fairly clear cancellation. They are also faced with the request of Washington to say how they could ensure the security of Ukraine after negotiating a ceasefire agreement. Specifically, it is about soldiers for a possible peace force and weapon systems.
Scholz had previously cooked the topic down for weeks and said it was too early to talk about a peace force. Great Britain’s head of government should also be part of the talks in Paris. For the British, the clear departure of the United States from Europe is an as big shock as for the EU countries.
3. Ukraine looks into an uncertain future
A dark week is behind the Ukrainian President Selenskyj. In order to enable an end to the Russian attack war, Ukraine should give up its ambitions to a quick NATO from a US perspective and accept that part of its state remains permanently under Russian control. In return, it is intended to grant the United States for further support rights to valuable Ukrainian raw materials.
Selenskyj has no choice but to make a good face about the evil game. If he rejects the United States’ claims, he takes the risk that it will hire their military support and his country may be completely under Russian control.
In view of the course of the new US government, Selenskyj asked the Europeans together at the security conference and called for the formation of a common European army. “From now on things will be different, and Europe has to prepare for it,” he said.
4. What falls down because of Trump and Vance
The Vance attack on Europe also meant that pressing other topics in Munich had little chance. This includes climate policy and the departure from Fossil energy (“Drill, Baby, Drill”), but also the dramatic location in the Gaza Strip and the future of Syria, which is very relevant to Europe. Syria’s DE FACTO Foreign Minister Assad Al-Schaibani had his first big appearance on the international stage in Munich.
He asked for international support and assured that the victorious Islamist militia HTS would respect diversity of the Syrian people and fundamental rights. The international community is faced with the decision as to whether the HTS will remain on the terrorist list and whether the sanctions imposed against Syria are canceled. Al-Schaibani promoted trust. “The fact that a revolution will be transformed into a state, this successful step in Syria in just two months, you will not find that in recent times.”
5. At Munich’s security conference campaigner for a moment united
The security conference was also a show of the German campaigners, a week before the Bundestag election next Sunday. With Olaf Scholz (SPD), Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU) and Robert Habeck (Greens), the three most promising candidates for chancellor had appearances on the big stage – and exceptionally agreed. The Vance speech shock welded together the campaigners, who unanimously banned the interference in internal affairs with a view to the backing of the AfD.
Only FDP boss Christian Lindner did not agree in the cross-party criticism: “So maybe a little less reflexive answer is required in relation to a complicated friend USA, but he said.
By the way, one of the German politicians got the greatest attention that only plays a supporting role in the election campaign. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was the first to answer Vance and received a lot of applause in the hall and social media. The others were only in the program a day later.
