Humanity is reaching the upper limit of life expectancy, according to a new study.
Advances in medical technology and genetic research — not to mention the fact that more people are reaching age 100 — are not translating into marked increases in overall life expectancy, according to researchers who found that decreased longevity increases in countries with the oldest populations.
We have to recognize that there is a limit” and perhaps reevaluate assumptions about when people should retire and how much money they will need to live their lives, said S. Jay Olshansky, a researcher at the University of Illinois-Chicago and lead author of the study published by Nature Aging magazine.
Mark Hayward, a researcher at the University of Texas who was not involved in the study, called it “a valuable addition to the literature on mortality”.
“We are reaching a plateau” in life expectancy, he agreed. It’s always possible that some breakthrough could take survival to higher levels, “but we don’t have that right now,” Hayward said.
What is life expectancy?
Life expectancy is an estimate of the average number of years a baby born in a given year could live, assuming that mortality rates at that time remain constant. It’s one of the world’s most important measures of health, but it’s also imperfect: It’s a snapshot estimate that can’t take into account deadly pandemics, miracle cures, or other unforeseen events that could kill or save millions of people.
In the new research, Olshansky and his collaborators analyzed life expectancy estimates for the years 1990 to 2019, drawn from a database managed by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. The researchers focused on eight of the places in the world where people live longer: Australia, France, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain and Switzerland.
The United States doesn’t even make the top 40, but it was also included “because we live here” and because of past, bold estimates that life expectancy in the United States could rise dramatically this century, Olshansky said.
Who lives longer?
Women continue to live longer than men and life expectancy continues to improve, although at a slower rate, according to researchers. In 1990, the average improvement was about two and a half years per decade. In the 2010s, it was a year and a half, and almost zero in the United States.
The United States is more problematic because it is hit harder by a host of problems that kill people even before they reach old age, including drug overdoses, shootings, obesity and inequalities that make it difficult for some people to get enough health care.
But in one calculation, the researchers estimated what would happen at the nine locations if all deaths before age 50 were eliminated. The increase, at best, was only a year and a half, Olshansky said.
Eileen Crimmins, a gerontology expert at the University of Southern California, said in an email that she agrees with the study’s findings. He added: “For me personally, the most important problem is the discouraging and declining relative position of the United States.”
The study suggests that there is a limit to life span of most people, and we’re almost there, Olshansky said.
We are making less and less use of these life-extending technologies. And the reason is that aging gets in the way,” he said.
It may seem common to hear of a person reaching 100 years old: former US President Jimmy Carter reached that milestone. In 2019, just over 2% of Americans reached age 100, compared to about 5% in Japan and 9% in Hong KongOlshansky said.
According to experts, the number of centenarians is likely to increase in the coming decades, but that is due to population growth. The percentage of people who reach age 100 will remain limited: probably less than 15% of women and 5% of men will reach that age in most countries, Olshansky said.
: