The Oceanic and Atmospheric National Administration (NOAA) forecasts between 13 and 19 storms with name, of which between six and ten could become cyclones, and between three and five they would reach the category of major hurricanes.
In this context, the Colorado State University (CSU) provides for 17 storms with name, nine hurricanes and four of great intensity, figures higher than the historical average. For its part, The Weather Company anticipates up to 19 storms with name, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
Preparations in Florida
At the state level, the authorities have intensified the preparation campaigns. The governor of Florida, Ron Desantis, and senators such as Rick Scott have toured and conferences to urge residents to stock up on essential supplies, review insurance policies and know their evacuation areas.
Additionally, Desantis said that the State has the National Guard, search and rescue teams, and that shelters and logistics resources have been prepared to respond quickly to any emergency.
The message is clear: individual preparation is key, since the science of hurricanes does not yet allow to predict exactly where and how a storm will impact. A single hurricane can have devastating consequences, as happened in 1992 with Hurricane Andrew in Miami.
Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe counties, historically those most affected by Hurricanes in Florida, are considered among the areas of greatest risk due to their population density and coastal location.
Local authorities have announced the reinforcement of informative campaigns on evacuation zones and indicated that interactive maps have updated so that residents can quickly identify their area and prepare in case of an evacuation order.
In Miami-Dade specific recommendations were issued in case there is a need to go to a shelter, but the community was also asked to remain informed and follow the instructions of public security officials. The emphasis lies in the importance of having an emergency team on hand and acting quickly in the face of evacuation orders.
As for Broward and Palm Beach, the authorities intensified drills and information campaigns, confirmed the preparation of housing and family planning against possible evacuations.
Due to its high exposure, Monroe, Coyas de Florida Cayos, anticipated an increase in alert systems and has carried out mass evacuation drills, in addition to campaigns to ensure vessels and properties against cyclonic dizzy.
Community organizations and health centers, such as Care Resource, also launched awareness campaigns and preparation guides not only in English, but also in Spanish, for vulnerable communities in southern Florida.
Risk Maps and shelters
An analysis of storm wave planning systems shows that Miami-Dade County, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe have risk maps that identify populations that require evacuation according to the intensity of the meteorological phenomenon.
The recent experience of Hurricane Milton, last October, validated many of these risk projections, providing empirical data on vulnerability patterns in the region, according to a study to which the Americas had daily access.
Miami-Dade implemented a system of five planning zones for storm waves, identified from Ala E, which determine the risk according to the intensity of the hurricane.
Zone A represents the area of greatest risk, being vulnerable to hurricanes of category 1 and higher, while zone B faces threats from category 2 onwards. This progressive system continues with zone C for categories 3 and higher, zone D for category 4 and area and exclusively for category 5 hurricanes.
The areas identified as of greater vulnerability include all mobile houses, regardless of their location, which forces residents of this type of homes to evacuate before any order by Hurricane. According to recent official data, there are 81 shelters with the capacity to house up to 112,000 people in emergency situations.
Broward maintains a more simplified evacuation system, with two main plans that respond to different hurricane intensities. Evacuation Plan is typically activated for category 1 or 2 hurricanes, and requires the exit of all residents east of the intracosteric channel, residents of mobile houses, and low or near areas or close to masses of tidal water.
Plan B, in this county north of Miami, is implemented for hurricanes of category 3 or higher, expanding the evacuation zone until all areas east of Route 1 (Federal Highway).
The shelter infrastructure includes 41 public schools that serve as shelters during hurricanes, with 34 educational centers designated as basic shelters and five for special needs.
Palm Beach developed a system of six evacuation zones, with geographical and construction considerations. Zone A covers all homes that require mandatory evacuation, including prefabricated houses/mobiles and homes with vulnerable structures.
Zones B, C, D and E are extended along the east coast of the County, while the area l runs along Lake Okeechobee. 15 evacuation shelters are available for the general public, two for people with special needs and one more that accepts pets.
Monroe represents the most extreme vulnerability scenario among the four counties, since it is in an flood zone, and category 2 and higher hurricanes cause storm wave levels that threaten the lives of residents.
The most alarming characteristic is that hurricanes of category 3 and superiors bring “catastrophic levels of destruction”, without safe refuge inside the county.
The evacuation protocol is unequivocal: Monroe issues mandatory evacuation orders outside the county for visitors and residents when a storm of category 2 or higher threatens the area.
Recent history
The 2024 season was one of the most intense and destructive in the recent state history. Three hurricanes touched land in Florida: Debby, Helene and Milton.
Debby arrived on the ground in the Big Bles area as category 1, with relatively minor damage, but marked the beginning of an active season, as the weather projections had anticipated.
Helene, with category 4, was the strongest hurricane ever registered in the region. It caused historical floods and swells of up to 12 feet, even affecting areas as southern as Sarasota. It is considered the deadliest cyclone in Florida from Katrina in 2005.
Milton reached category 5 in the Gulf of Mexico (today Gulf of America) and touched land near Siesta Key as category 3. It stood out for its rapid intensification and cause the greatest outbreak of tornadoes associated with a cyclone in the history of Florida, with 46 confirmed, and damage estimated at 34.6 billion dollars.
The authorities declared emergency states in dozens of counties, including Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe, and massive evacuations were carried out in vulnerable areas.
The accumulated impact left thousands of damaged homes, power cuts, floods and an arduous reconstruction process, especially on the west coast and metropolitan areas of southern Florida.
