The agreement that President Trump hoped to reach with his Ukrainian pair, Volodimir Zelenski, last February, was finally signed on April 30 -and ratified by the Ukrainian Parliament on May 8 -in more “righteous” terms For kyiv, which is exonerated from paying the millionaire “debt” of the financing he has received from the US from the Russian invasion in February 2022.
Within the framework of this agreement, the US Secretary of the American Treasury Scott Besent, recognized the “large -scale invasion” of Russia and reaffirmed the US commitment, which tries to “facilitate the end of this cruel and foolish war”, with a “peace process centered on A free, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine in the long term ”.
“Without a doubt, rhetoric has changed (…) that is demonstrating is that the US, which has been trying since the arrival of President Trump to achieve a peace agreement, is realizing more and more than Russia (Vladimir Putin) that He doesn’t want to get to La Paz”, Argues the international analyst Erich de la Fuente, professor of International Relations at the International University of Florida (FIU), in conversation with Las Américas Diario.
According to the Global Affairs Crisis Management Expert, from the Trump Administration there was “optimism” of achieving an agreement between Russia and Ukraine with its arrival at the White House, a “Very positive thinking” that the Kremlin has thrown by land, rejecting the cessation of the 30 -day fire proposed by the US in mid -March.
“The mentality of the administration was ‘Let’s make an attempt’, ‘Let’s see what happens’, ‘let’s put things on the table’ (…) USA wants to reach a peace agreement, that war is ceased and there was a lot The Kremlin who does not want to reach an agreement of peace, ”explains the analyst.
What does the agreement imply?
The “historical” Economic Association Agreement between Washington and kyiv implies that USA “will have more presence and interest” in Ukrainewhich undertakes to give preference to Washington in farms of 57 types of natural resources, including oil, gas and elements such as lithium or uranium, essential to produce consumer technology, such as mobile phones or electric, aerospace and medical vehicles.
This agreement, with which Ukraine maintains its sovereignty over its subsoil, infrastructure and natural resources, establishes a Investment Fund for Ukraine Reconstructionwhich will be financed and managed by both parties equally.
The profits will be distributed equally between the two countries, although, at least during the first 10 years, the benefits must reinvest the reconstruction of Ukrainedevastated by the Russian invasion, or in new exploitation projects of these minerals.
The agreement also exempts Ukraine from paying the 500,000 million dollars that Trump requested for the aid delivered by his predecessor, the Democrat Joe Biden, since the beginning of the war and, practically, guarantees the military cooperation of Washington, whose help will count as a contribution to the investment fund
“This It almost guarantees that the United States will continue to send military help to Ukraine, unless it reaches a peace agreement, because the way that the US will contribute to the fund is with military aid (…) It is a good agreement for both sides”, Says De la Fuente.
States that this agreement is “Symbolically important” Although it is not specified if it covers the entire territory that Ukraine recognizes as their own, including those that are now under control of Moscow, which house many deposits and a large part of the Ukrainian natural resources and rare earths that are without exploit.
“This is a treatment to send a clear sign that the US will be in the long term in Ukraine,” says the analyst, also indicating that he raises the unknown of “what will happen when there are American personnel” in the areas to be exploited, something that is not expected in the short term because “there is still the front walking very hot.”
A matter of sovereignty
This agreement does not hinder kyiv’s path towards a possible integration within the European Union (EU), although it also does not offer the formal security guarantees that Ukraine expected. However, with this economic relationship, Washington would have incentives to guarantee the stability of the European country, which would allow it “Accelerate” your economic recoveryas estimated by the pact between both nations.
The Trump administration made kyiv accept its terms to reach a peace agreement with Moscow, to the point of being willing to yield, at least temporarily, more than the 20% of its territorythat Russia was annexed illegally, including Crimea -tomada in 2014- and the Luhansk, Jersón and Zaporiyia regions. In addition, Ukraine was willing to put aside his idea of joining NATO, in search of security to avoid new Russian attacks.
“It was going to be accepted to give territory, with the idea that, in the long term, to the best diplomatically, it would recover years later, but to stop the war, and the Russians have continued to bombard,” says the analyst.
In his opinion, this agreement – although “favorable” for the Kremlin – does not represent a strong incentive for the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, who maintains a “Rupor policy” Against the West system to break its world influence, considering that for Russia the issue of Ukraine is a “matter of sovereignty.”
“For Kremlin, this is a matter of sovereignty. They do not believe in Ukraine as a countrywith which, these negotiations by territory to Russia do not care, because its objective is to knock the government of Ukraine, ”he explains.
In the midst of this scenario, he affirms that the Kremlin plays to extend the war, calculating that West “sooner or later” He will get tired of helping Ukraine, for the reluctance of the US and the “questionable” help that Europe has given, which is not willing to send troops to combat.
In this sense, the military aid that Washington continues to provide to kyiv, especially in anti -aircraft and technology teams, in addition to training to protect the cities that remain under attack by Moscow.
Pressure to Russia
The analyst maintains that the only way Moscow accepts a peace agreement is that The US “tightens the nuts” And increase the pressure “in some different way” that truly affects the Kremlin.
In his opinion, the Trump administration could increase the pressure towards the Kremlin through the “Ghost companies” that operate from the United Arab Emirates, India and other parts of the world, through which Putin continues to sell oil, fertilizers, among others, and buying technology to maintain their war.
“They are not ‘Russian’ companies, but they are controlled or act in favor of Russia. Closing those holes is a huge pressure for Moscowthat has maintained its economy although, obviously, with problems, ”he says.
In addition, he estimates that he could press, apart from the “oligarch movement”, to the entrepreneurs who move through Europe and the US, and with the allied countries so that they do not send mercenaries to fight in favor of Moscow. “The US must make it clear that, although the goal is not to continue the war, but to reach a peace agreement so that the dead are ceased, There will be long -term military aid”, Emphasizes.
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