Anyone else would have been drowned in the morass of lawsuits long ago. Not so Donald Trump. The ongoing legal trouble is even giving him a boost. And not just among his own followers.
In mid-January, the US Republicans in the state of Iowa will begin choosing their presidential candidate and it would take a medium to very large miracle to stop the conservatives from electing Donald Trump. In Colorado, some of his opponents, including some from his own party, tried and were successful: a court removed the ex-US President from the state’s primary ballot. Reason: He is partly responsible for the insurrection on January 6, 2021 – on that day countless of his supporters stormed the Capitol in Washington.
Donald Trump is going to the Supreme Court
According to the verdict, Donald Trump is now officially an insurgent and as such is not allowed to run for president. Whether the court decision will stand remains to be seen, as the Trump team has already announced that it will appeal against it to the Supreme Court. It is still completely unclear whether the appeal has a chance of success. If the constitutional judges follow their colleagues from Colorado, other states may also try to remove the former head of state from the ballot. What Trump would defend himself against with all legal means.
This can only be right for the long-term Republican candidate. Because as absurd as it sounds: every trip to court, every lawsuit, every appeal is a triumph for Trump and increases his popularity. The ex-president has been clearly ahead in the internal party polls for years, but since the lawsuit against him was opened, his popularity ratings have really taken off.
March 30, 2023: first facility against an ex-president
Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida and for a time Trump’s only intra-party opponent, was “only” less than 20 percentage points behind the favorite at the beginning of the spring, but then came March 30, when an indictment against a former president was filed in New York City for the first time President was read out. The accusation: falsification of business documents to conceal the payment of hush money to the porn actress Stormy Daniels. The defendant reacted in a tried-and-tested manner and portrayed himself as the victim of not only a political but now also a legal “witch hunt”. In the following weeks it increased by ten percentage points and surpassed the 50 percent mark in April.
At the beginning of May, the author E. Jean Carroll won in court after accusing Trump of rape and defamation and was partly right. In the polls, his popularity then rose by four percentage points to 56 percent. And so it goes: In June, an indictment for embezzlement of secret documents follows in Miami, at the beginning of Augustin Washington for attempting to influence the election and in mid-August in Atlanta also for attempting to manipulate the election. At the beginning of September, his approval rating had reached its highest point ever at almost 59 percent.
Trump’s opponents had high hopes
Trump’s opponents had long hoped that his legal troubles could bring him down. You were wrong. The assumption that the details from the ongoing proceedings would harm him has not yet been confirmed. Here too, the opposite seems to be true: although Trump infuriates Judge Arthur Engoron with abusive comments in the New York fraud trial, He is making undeterred gains in the polls: he currently has an average approval rating of 63 percent.
And even in the duel with the incumbent US President Joe Biden, he is slowly but surely pulling away: If there were an election now, Trump would have a lead of three percent. He is even more clearly ahead in the swing states that decide the election.
Trump myth: victims and fighters
“I can shoot someone on 5th Avenue and not lose a single supporter,” Donald Trump once said with eerie prescience. He didn’t kill anyone, but every attack on him apparently triggers the protective instinct of not only his followers. It also underlines his image as a selfless fighter against a deeply unfair and overpowering system and, at the same time, ensures a permanent media presence that no money in the world could buy. His opponents should therefore hope for an early end to Trump’s procedural teasing.
Sources: New York Times, The Atlantic, DPA AFP, Washington Examiner, Reaclearpolitics, Pinknews
