Election disaster, budget dispute, poor poll ratings: Chancellor Scholz has had a pretty uncomfortable time. In his summer press conference, however, he demonstrated one thing above all: confidence.
US President Joe Biden has been Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s most important partner on the international stage over the past two and a half years, and also a role model. However, the Chancellor does not want to follow the 81-year-old’s decision not to run for president again. “I will run for chancellor to become chancellor again,” he made clear in response to the first question at his traditional summer press conference in Berlin.
That said the most important thing. What followed was almost two hours in which the SPD politician Scholz tried to do one thing above all: defy the bitter election defeats and disastrous poll ratings of his party and its chancellor and spread confidence. “We are all determined to go into the next federal election campaign together and win,” he said of himself and the SPD. He also hinted at how he intends to achieve this: by defending pensions, fighting against dumping wages (“I am Mr. Minimum Wage”) and preventing Germany from being drawn into the Ukraine war.
Poor poll numbers as “incentive”
The SPD had already made these issues a priority in the European elections in May, where it achieved its worst result in a national election in almost 130 years, with 13.9 percent. In the polls for the federal election, the Social Democrats are currently at between 14 and 16 percent, far behind the Union. And in Saxony and Thuringia, where the next state elections will take place on September 1, the SPD is only at single-digit values.
“Poll results that are not good are an incentive to want to achieve better poll results,” said Scholz, expressing his conviction that he can still reverse the trend, as he did in the last federal election before the fall of 2025.
Dwindling support within one’s own party
In the meantime, however, his own party is no longer as firmly behind its chancellor as it was after the 2021 election victory. Most recently, in a Forsa survey commissioned by the Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland (RND), only a third of SPD members supported Scholz as a candidate for chancellor. Just as many consider Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who ranks at the top of all popularity rankings, to be the more suitable top man.
When asked whether work was already being done to find someone from the SPD to replace him, Scholz simply said: “By the end of the next or the next legislative period, we will be ready.”
The press conference, which was organized by the Association of Capital Journalists, also covered a whole range of factual topics:
Praise for Harris – Not a word about Trump
Scholz spoke favorably of US Vice President Kamala Harris, Biden’s potential successor as presidential candidate. “I think it’s very possible that Kamala Harris will win the election. But it’s the American voters who will decide,” he said. It was striking that he did not want to comment at all on the Republican candidate, Donald Trump. He avoided questions about it – perhaps also so as not to ruin everything with Trump.
Arms deliveries to Israel still possible
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine was hardly a topic of discussion. Instead, the Middle East conflict was. Even after the recent ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, Scholz still reserves the right to supply weapons to Israel. “We have supplied weapons to Israel and we have not made a decision not to do so anymore.” This is decided on a case-by-case basis. The highest UN court recently stated in an opinion that Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territories is illegal and must be ended as soon as possible.
Soon deportations of serious criminals to Afghanistan
Scholz announced that the federal government would soon make decisions on deporting serious criminals to Afghanistan. “We are working very carefully to ensure that you will soon be able to report on deportations that have actually been carried out to Afghanistan,” he said. As a consequence of the deadly knife attack in Mannheim, Scholz announced that the deportation of serious criminals and terrorist threats to Afghanistan and Syria would be permitted again. The federal government is negotiating with various third countries through which it wants to enable deportations to Afghanistan.
Uncertainty factor in the federal budget
The federal budget could cause problems for Scholz and his traffic light coalition again in the coming weeks. Although a painstakingly negotiated agreement was recently reached, the financing of eight billion euros next year is still not entirely certain.
The Chancellor expressed confidence that the problem is “solvable” and stressed that the other traffic light coalition partners also see it that way. By mid-August it should be clear whether the plans he hatched with Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) are constitutional and economically viable. The draft must then be submitted to the Bundestag.
Summer peace: just a pious wish?
The summer press conference was one of the Chancellor’s last appointments before the summer vacation. On Friday he will be in Paris for the opening of the Olympic Games, then he will also be on vacation, during which he plans to spend two weeks with his wife Britta Ernst in “friendly European countries.” “I’m looking forward to peace and quiet,” he said recently in an ARD interview about his expectations for the vacation. That could remain a pious wish. Next Tuesday, day four of Olaf Scholz and his wife’s vacation, the Federal Constitutional Court will rule on the controversial new electoral law that the traffic light coalition passed last year. If it is overturned, the peace and quiet could be over by then.
