Meanwhile he growing number of people migrants in United States has caused division among politicians across the country — and stoked angst among a section of voters — there is one place where almost everyone seems to be equally optimistic: Wall Street.
Last month, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that immigration will generate a $7 trillion increase in gross domestic product (GDP) over the next decade. The agency reached that conclusion after factoring in the recent increase in immigration.
The CBO's publication sparked a flurry of new calculations among investment bank economists to account for the boost that those recently arriving in the country are giving to the workforce and consumer spending. On Sunday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc revised up its near-term economic growth forecasts. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BNP Paribas SA were among banks that acknowledged the economic impact of increased immigration in recent weeks.
“Immigration is not only an issue with a lot of social and political charge, but also an important macroeconomic issue”Janet Henry, global chief economist at HSBC Holdings Plc., wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday. No advanced economy is benefiting as much from immigration as the United States. and “the impact of migration has been an important part of US growth over the past two years.”
Morgan Stanley economists Sam Coffin and Ellen Zentner noted this month that faster population growth fueled by immigration lends itself to stronger employment and population estimates than initially thought, although they added that the official data may not capture the full effect.
It is difficult to pinpoint the exact scale of the influx of foreign-born people, because many entered without visas or other documentation. But CBO statisticians used U.S. Customs and Border Patrol data to come up with their upwardly revised projection of net immigration, according to the Morgan Stanley analysis.
Goldman estimates that immigration was around 2.5 million in 2023a figure much higher than the 1.6 million implied by the change in the foreign-born population in the Census Bureau's official household survey.
The positive tone among economists contradicts what was observed during the electoral campaign, while an increase in the number of undocumented immigrants who enter the US through the southern border fuels the political struggle. The share of Americans who consider immigration to be the most important issue facing the United States now matches a record high in data recorded four decades ago, according to a recent Gallup poll. The 32.5 million immigrant workers in the country They now represent about one in five American workers, a record in government data dating back nearly two decades.
To be sure, both economists and policymakers have noted the connection between the increased influx of foreign workers and the rapid post-pandemic recovery for some time. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly mentioned immigration as one of the reasons behind strong economic growth.
