The first details of the future US government’s peace plan for Ukraine have just become known, and there is already the first answer from those around the Kremlin: a slap, as could hardly be expected. Konstantin Malofeev, a Russian oligarch subject to Western sanctions, spoke to the Financial Times. However, not as a representative of President Vladimir Putin, he expressed his own opinion, which, however, coincides with the assessment of pro-Russian commentators. Like her, Malofeyev assumes that Putin will probably reject the plan of Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s future special envoy for the Ukraine conflict.
What is astonishing, however, is the oligarch’s drastic choice of words. “Let’s say Kellogg comes to Moscow with his plan, then we tell him to fuck off because we don’t like any of it. That would be the whole negotiation,” Malofeyev told the Financial Times. “For the talks to be constructive, we need to talk not about the future of Ukraine, but about the future of Europe and the world.”
High hurdles before discussions
Malofeev named a prerequisite that must be met before talks can begin. Washington must reverse the decision to use modern long-range weapons and then remove Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from office. There could then be a meeting with Putin to “discuss all issues of world order at the highest level.”
Malofeev is a hardliner. In 2014 he supported the separatists in Donbass. For him, Ukraine is an artificial entity. He’s not just rich, he’s a mastermind who brings together ultra-conservative forces. A strict believer himself, he sees Moscow as the third Rome and the Russian Federation as the successor to the Russian Empire.
Political-religious hardliner
Because of his role in the annexation of Crimea, Malofeyev ended up on Western sanctions lists in 2014. He recently married Marija Lwowa-Belowa. She is the Kremlin’s children’s rights commissioner and is accused by the International Criminal Court of organizing the abduction of children from Ukraine. This marriage is a clear indication of how closely Malofeyev is integrated into Putin’s inner circle. Even if his statement is not an official statement from the Kremlin, it was probably launched from there.
In the interview, Malofeev also stirred up nuclear fears. He said that “the world is on the brink of nuclear war.” If the US does not reduce its support for Ukraine, Russia could use a tactical nuclear weapon. “There will be a radiation zone that no one will penetrate in our lifetime. And the war would be over.”
Ahead of upcoming negotiations, both sides are demonstrating their willingness to further escalate the war. Shortly before his nomination, Kellogg said the United States and allies should not be intimidated by Putin’s new weapon, “because Putin will not start a nuclear war in Europe.” Malofeev’s comments are a direct response to this. In the military we talk about “shaping” before an offensive, the preparations that are necessary before the troops move. The likely upcoming peace talks between Putin and Trump are now also in a shaping phase. Official and unofficial statements are used to stake out and explore positions before negotiations even begin. Malofeev is an ideal candidate to spread such statements. Close enough to the Kremlin to be heard. But also no official, no general, no minister – i.e. no one whose words the Kremlin would have to answer for. The pithy choice of words guarantees worldwide media coverage. The first details of Trump’s peace plan were launched by former employees. Also people from whom it is easy to distance yourself.
Putin sees himself as the winner
It is hardly surprising that Putin will reject the Kellogg plan in its current form. It envisages a freeze in the conflict along the current front line, but excludes Moscow’s conquests from being internationally recognized. After the end of the hostilities, Ukraine should continue to receive military support and armament. It is promised that Ukraine cannot become a member of NATO and the EU for a certain time, but later it can. And last but not least, troops from NATO countries would probably be stationed in the country to monitor the demarcation line. All points that Russia is unlikely to accept. From Moscow’s perspective, the war was started because of possible NATO membership, the rearmament of the Ukrainian armed forces and the possible deployment of Western weapons – all positions of the Kellogg plan. In return, Russia is offered the prospect of easing sanctions and isolation.
Russia currently sees itself on the road to victory. In the east, Putin’s troops are advancing faster, and Ukraine is less and less able to hold the long front line. In addition to problems with ammunition and equipment, Kiev is struggling with a shortage of soldiers. People are desperately trying to solve the problem with forced recruitment. But the images, reminiscent of manhunts and kidnappings, undermine morale. And they are a globally visible signal that not enough Ukrainians are willing to fight voluntarily for their country.
With the mobilized people barely trained and equipped, it is not possible to stabilize the front. They only drive up the loss figures. From a Russian perspective, there is little reason to give up the fight now. Although the overheated economy caused by war spending will cause major problems in the long term, this will not lead to Russia having to call off the war in the near future.
Bait for Trump
Malofeev’s reference to nuclear weapons is a response to the idea of equipping Kiev with many more and more effective weapons in order to force Russia to negotiate. The oligarch’s threat is not entirely unreasonable. After Russia deployed the Oreshnik medium-range weapon in November, maps were published showing which cities in the West could be reached and destroyed and how quickly. In fact, a nuclear strike against Paris or London is very unlikely. The situation is different with the territory of Ukraine. When the Russians were threatened with a serious defeat in Kherson, east of the Dnieper, they are said to have been on the verge of using tactical nuclear weapons, according to Western sources. Only an intervention by the USA behind the scenes is said to have prevented the catastrophe. In return, the Russians were able to lead their troops back across the river unhindered.
In addition, Malofeev spoke of a completely different, global dimension to the talks. He told the newspaper that Trump must be willing to talk about other trouble spots, including the wars in the Middle East and Russia’s alliance with China. And the USA must recognize that Ukraine is one of the Kremlin’s core interests. “We want long-term peace – a kind of general agreement on global order,” said Malofeev. In doing so, he brings a maximum demand from the Kremlin to the table: the West should recognize that Ukraine is a country with limited sovereignty. The extension to the global order suggests that Russia could be playing for time. The larger the scope, the longer the negotiations and the longer the fighting could last.
Malofeev also throws out a bait: vanity. A new global order would make Donald Trump a central figure in history. “Trump wants to go down in history, he’ll soon be 80, he’s a grandfather. Putin isn’t 50 anymore either. That will be the legacy they both leave behind.”
Source: “Financial Times”
