Health officials and doctors are trying to prepare for the flu season that is about to begin, after last year there were a record number of cases of infection and hospitalizations in the United States due to this and other respiratory diseases.
In other countries, authorities have already issued warnings this week that the season is starting very strongly. For example, in the United Kingdom the Government issued an alert because there have been more infections reported than usual among children and young adults. In Japan, several schools were also closed this month due to the very high number of cases despite the fact that the season is just beginning.
The United States faces this panorama starting this November, when cases of influenza and other respiratory diseases such as syncytial virus (RSV in Spanish or RSV, for its acronym in English) tend to begin to increase. The rise in infections usually extends until February of the following year.
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However, this year there is special concern among specialists and some groups in the US because there have been cuts in key agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the government shutdown has led to orders for offices such as epidemic monitoring to stop operating.
Lack of monitoring
Due to issues such as these cuts and the closure, the CDC has not had any update on reports of influenza cases since September 20.
The lack of monitoring is worrying, according to Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, because the information is necessary to know where to direct more resources or how to respond to infections.
That will affect “everything from the approaches of health campaigns to logistics issues, such as deciding where to send more vaccines,” Rasmussen said. “Given the lack of information, it is very difficult to coordinate a national response.”
Last year, the flu shook the United States with more than 1.1 million people hospitalized due to its symptoms. It was the highest number of flu hospitalizations in 14 years, according to the CDC.
In addition, the highest number of medical consultations for flu symptoms, such as fever, cut body or runny nose, were reported in a decade.
In total, during the 2024 to 2025 flu season, an estimated 38,000 to 99,000 people died, according to an initial record compiled by the CDC. It was a particularly deadly year for minors, with at least 280 child deaths.
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What to expect in these months?
It is especially difficult to predict the possible infections that there will be. This year, the CDC has said there may be fewer cases than last season, but there is potential for the flu to hit certain groups harder if they don’t get vaccinated. For example, people over 65 years of age.
So far the strains that are circulating are similar to those that caused last year’s strong outbreaks: influenza A with H1N1 and H3N2 strains and influenza B.
“It’s a little early to know which strains are going to be the most present this year, but we definitely already know that there is a risk because virulent strains could be in circulation again,” said George Díaz, a researcher with the Infectious Diseases Society of America group and chief medical officer at Providence Regional Medical Center in Washington state.
Díaz and other experts indicated that even if someone got sick with the flu in 2024, they are still vulnerable to getting sick this year because immunity weakens as the months go by, especially for elderly people or people with an affected immune system, such as those with lupus.
The best time to get vaccinated
Another issue that could complicate the situation this year is that the rate of people who are hesitant about getting vaccinated has increased, and in some medical centers there is a lack of infrastructure.
“I think this season the problem is going to be triggered more by social or political changes than by virology,” Rasmussen said.
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As of last year, less than 50% of children had been vaccinated against influenza, a decrease of 20 percentage points compared to the 2019 season.
Rasmussen said the trend against vaccinating minors against flu illnesses could continue to grow.
Wiliam Schaffner, a professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University, said getting vaccinated is the best protection against suffering the most severe symptoms.
“October is the best time to get vaccinated,” he said. “That offers enough protection for the entire season, which can last until February or March.”
