A few weeks before US President Donald Trump takes office, preparations are being made in NATO for a possible change of course in American Ukraine policy. The aim is to ensure that Ukraine can conduct possible peace talks with Russia from a position of strength, said Secretary General Mark Rutte at a two-day NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels. Above all, more military aid is needed.
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock confirmed that there is also the question of what an “international presence to secure a ceasefire” in Ukraine could look like and did not rule out the participation of the Bundeswehr. The Green politician said that the German side would of course support everything that would serve peace in the future with all its might. Like Rutte, however, she also underlined the importance of further military aid. The country must be in a position of strength when it comes to the negotiating table, she said.
The background to the talks in NATO are fears that Trump could try to pressure Ukraine and Russia into negotiations after taking office. To do this, he could, for example, threaten to stop military aid to Ukraine if it refuses to do so. In such a case, however, he could announce to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he would once again expand military aid to Kiev.
Rutte: Russia doesn’t want to end war
Rutte warned against forcing Ukraine into peace negotiations with Russia during a period of weakness. “What must not happen under any circumstances is that Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping and others give each other high fives,” he said. This could lead the North Korean ruler and China’s head of state to take actions that would also be bad for the USA and Europeans. “If we come to a Ukraine deal at some point, it has to be a good deal,” emphasized Rutte.
At the same time, the former Dutch head of government reiterated that he does not believe that Putin is interested in ending the war. “Russia’s aggression shows no signs of abating. On the contrary: Putin is increasing his rhetoric and continuing to act recklessly,” said Rutte. As examples, he cited the deployment of North Korean soldiers and the firing of newly developed missiles into Ukraine.
Ukraine wants NATO membership as a guarantee
Ukraine made it clear again on Tuesday that it only sees NATO membership as an effective security guarantee in the event of a ceasefire with Russia. Targeted at the meeting of NATO foreign ministers, the Foreign Ministry in Kiev recalled the bad experiences with the almost 30-year-old Budapest Memorandum.
“We are convinced that the only real security guarantee for Ukraine and a deterrent to further Russian aggression against Ukraine and other states is full Ukrainian NATO membership,” the statement said. “Based on the bitter experience with the Budapest Memorandum, we will accept no alternatives, no imitation and no substitute for full NATO membership for Ukraine.”
In 1994, Ukraine surrendered Soviet nuclear weapons on its territory; In return, the nuclear powers USA, Russia and Great Britain promised her non-binding security. Moscow broke the agreement with the attack on Ukraine in 2014 and the large-scale invasion from 2022, said the Foreign Ministry in Kiev.
Debate about NATO invitation for Ukraine
However, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be invited to NATO quickly. On Tuesday, Rutte did not include it among the steps currently necessary. It could only be decided unanimously in the alliance and is currently rejected by heads of state and government such as Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel also expressed skepticism: “I believe that NATO membership will bring tension again,” he said. Further conflicts could arise immediately.
Bettel was alluding to the fact that Russia sees itself threatened by NATO. The possible inclusion of Kiev in the Western defense alliance was one of the reasons for the war for Moscow, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Russia demands that Ukraine remain neutral, as it did when it gained independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Ukraine, on the other hand, has enshrined its desire to join NATO in its constitution.
