Almost half of German industrial companies fear negative consequences for their operations if Donald Trump wins the US election on November 5th. 44 percent expressed this opinion in a survey by the Ifo Institute. 5 percent hope for positive effects. 51 percent expect no difference.
“Companies with close economic ties to the USA in particular expect negative consequences if Trump wins the election,” says Ifo expert Andreas Baur. “However, many companies without direct export relationships to the USA also fear negative effects because, for example, as suppliers they can still be indirectly affected.”
However, only a small proportion of the approximately 2,000 companies surveyed are planning adaptation measures. According to the Ifo survey, only 4 percent are considering, for example, moving more production to the USA or adjusting supply chains. 83 percent have no such plans, the rest don’t know yet.
Experts have a similar opinion
According to experts, the concerns are not unfounded. The tariffs promised by Trump alone would reduce German exports to the USA by almost 15 percent, writes Baur, for example, with reference to an earlier study. And a survey of financial experts by the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) recently came to the conclusion that an election victory for Kamala Harris would probably be better for the German economy.
The USA is an important export market for German industry. Around 40 percent of the companies surveyed confirmed this for their own business. When it comes to imports from the USA, only 11 percent said this.
There is a certain amount of wishful thinking when it comes to expectations of the election outcome. Those who think Harris is better for their own business give her slightly better chances on average – and vice versa. Overall, the majority of companies expect a very narrow result.
