Miami– A virtual technical tie between the First Lady Casey Desantis and Congressman Byron Donalds shakes the contest for the Republican nomination to the Florida Governorate, as revealed a recent survey from the University of Northern Florida (UNF).
The survey confirms that the support of President Donald Trump to Donalds neutralized the initial advantage of Desantis and transformed the dispute into the polls, which will be decided in 2026, in a direct struggle between Trumpism and the political apparatus of the current governor, Ron Desantis, Casey husband.
This scenario anticipates what would be the most close primary of the party in the state since 2018 and could expose a fracture in the dome of conservative power due to its leadership.
Survey Light the alarms
The study of the Public Opinion Research Lab of the UNF shows Casey Desantis with 32 % of the intention to vote compared to 29 % of Byron Donalds. The three -point difference is within the error margin of ± 3.9, which constitutes a statistical tie.
The survey, conducted between 797 registered Republican voters, reflects a closing trend in the gap between Desantis and Donalds that other measurements have already anticipated.
A St. Pete Polls’ survey in early July awarded Donalds an eight -point advantage, while a News from the State/UNF measurement located them with only one point of difference.
The unf’s demographic analysis reveals clear patterns: Casey Desantis obtains its best results among women, Hispanics and voters under 65 years.
For its part, Donalds dominates with forcefulness among men and, crucially, among the electorate who participated in the 2024 presidential primary, a high participation segment that represents the most loyal base to Trump.
Trump shadow
The reconfiguration of the electoral contest has a precise date of origin: on February 21, when Donald Trump formalized his “total support” to Donalds through his social network, social truth.
The president described him as “the next great governor of Florida”, a support that immediately activated the fundraising machinery of the Maga Movement and deterred other possible applicants.
In contrast, Governor Desantis, who came to power in 2018 thanks to Trump’s decisive support, maintains a calculated distance. Nearby sources say that the president made calls to key donors to ask them to retain their support until his wife officially officially.
In addition, he said in a public event that Donalds “did not participate in the conservative achievements of the State.”
The tension between both leaders is reflected in the bases. “Whoever has the president’s approval will win in Florida,” said state senator Joe Gruters, a firm Trump ally. Meanwhile, the establishment From Tallahassee, loyal to the governor, see in Casey Desantis the ideal figure to preserve her husband’s legacy.
Hope Florida
Casey Desantis’s candidacy faces a significant obstacle: research on Hope Florida, its flagship program. The initiative, created in 2021 to connect vulnerable families with charity organizations, is under legislative and judicial scrutiny.
A parliamentary investigation discovered that the foundation that manages the program received 10 million dollars from an extrajudicial agreement with the insurer Centene and subsequently transferred those funds to organizations that campaigned against the legalization of recreational cannabis, a measure that the governor rejects.
Although Governor Desantis dismissed the investigation as a “political maneuver”, the scandal could hit the image of the first lady and would sow doubts about the transparency of his main social project, a pillar of his eventual campaign.
