If there is one statistic capable of explaining why a player deserves to be called “valuable,” it is the Win Probability Added.
The WPA attempts to measure how much a team’s chances of winning change as a result of a player’s actions. It’s not simply a matter of how many home runs he hits or how many runs he drives in, but rather how much weight his performances have on the outcome of games.
Yordan Alvarez leads the American League in that category with a 6.52.
It is not a minor fact. Nor is it an isolated statistic within an extraordinary season. It is probably one of the most compelling arguments to explain why the MVP of the American League should be the hitter of the Astros.
Álvarez enters the final week of the season with 40 home runs, 99 RBIs, a .313 average and a 1.027 OPS. He leads the AL in OPS and on-base percentage, while his 179 wRC+ puts him well above the rest of the qualified hitters.
But back to WPA.
Because therein lies the difference between producing statistics and producing impact.
Junior Caminero He has had an extraordinary season. His 41 home runs keep him as the main alternative argument for the award. But if the discussion is about which hitter has had the greatest impact on his team’s chances of winning, Alvarez has a statistical answer that’s hard to ignore.
And that’s precisely what should matter when we talk about the Most Valuable Player.
The MVP should not become a race to determine who has the largest number in a certain column. One player can lead in home runs; another, in runs batted in; another, on stolen bases. The most important question is which player has put together the most elements to become a determining force all season long.
A different hitter
Álvarez has done it. And he has done so after playing just 48 games in 2025 due to injuries. He returned this year and once again produced at a superstar level, once again becoming Houston’s offensive lynchpin.
Even their recent offensive slump, which has reduced their chances of winning the Triple Crownthe dimension of his season has not changed. MLB.com notes that his 179 wRC+ is still at least 27 points higher than any other qualified American League hitter.
Therefore, the debate may exist to decide who ends up behind him.
For first place, there are fewer and fewer arguments. Yordan Álvarez has been the most productive, most complete and, especially, most decisive hitter in the American League.
There is no discussion for the MVP.
