If Donald Trump wins the US elections in November and moves into the White House for a second term, Mexico will be the country most at risk from his policies.
The Intelligence Unit of the magazine The Economist (the same ones who make the McDonald’s Index) created the Trump Risk Index lists the 70 largest trading partners of the United States according to their exposure to the policies of the Republican businessman.
On a world map, the level of exposure to Trump was painted in different shades of red, and Mexico stands out across the entire world map in black: out of a maximum of 100 points, we have 71.
We are the country most at risk of a second Trump term.
Starting with the geographic situation and then the commercial one. Since this year we are the main commercial partner of the largest economy in the world and this pleasant reality can be a boomerang against.
Trade deficits are a major concern for the Republican candidate and the deficit with Mexico rose to $152 billion in 2023, a 37 percent growth from 2020.
Although the tripartite review of the USMCA is due to take place in July 2026, the legislative committees and discussion panels will begin in January 2025 with the new makeup of the US Congress. And although this treaty is “his baby,” the treaty he designed to replace the “worst one his country had signed,” as he referred to NAFTA, that is no guarantee either.
“He is an unpredictable person,” one of the officials in charge of the renegotiation from 2017 told me. And that adjective is the one that businessmen, investors and firms that are directing their projects toward the Latin American country closest to the United States, driven by the wave of the nearshoring.
“Trump signed the USMCA, but that is no guarantee that he will not scrap it or use it as leverage to extract concessions from Mexico, particularly regarding its trade with China,” the British magazine’s report states.
In addition to exports, there is another factor that has been his favorite target: immigration. The stricter rules he promises to impose in the United States could affect millions of Mexicans and migrants of other nationalities who use the territory as an avenue to reach the American dream.
Another factor in his election platform is security. In the 16-page document he has submitted ahead of the November ballot, he outlines that military aid would likely be more conditional and allies would be intimidated into increasing their own defense spending.
After Mexico, the other Latin American countries that would be most exposed to the ‘Trump Risk’ would be Costa Rica, Panama, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador and Honduras. In all cases, immigration would affect their income because these are countries where remittances represent between 8 and 23 percent of their GDP.
China, against which Trump waged a trade war during his first term, ranks highest among all Asian countries. The Republican candidate leaves no opportunity to say that he wants a more decisive disengagement from the world’s second economic power. He has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60 percent on all its products.
While it may be difficult for Trump to impose his more radical ideas (such as the expulsion of migrants or the increase in tariffs), there would be more risk in international policy issues.
It has already demonstrated its willingness (and ability) to ditch international agreements such as the TPP or withdraw from global alliances such as the Paris Agreement.
“There is concern that in a second term, Trump may also want to leave NATO or significantly undermine the military alliance,” the report added. The Economist adding an extra ingredient to the enormous uncertainty generated by the upcoming elections on November 5.
