The fertility rate in the United States fell to its lowest level in 2024, with an average of less than 1.6 children for each woman, according to new federal data published this Thursday.
The United States became one of the few developed countries with a birth rate that guaranteed that each generation had enough children to replace themselves: around 2.1 children per woman. However, this rate has been descending in the country for almost two decades, since more and more women wait more time to have children or never take that step.
The new statistics are on par with the fertility rates of Western European countries, according to World Bank data.
Alarmed by the recent falls, the Donald Trump government has taken measures to increase birth rates, such as the issuance of an executive decree destined to expand access and reduce the costs of in vitro fertilization and the backing to the idea of the “Baby Bonds”, which could encourage more couples to have children.
But there is no reason to be alarmed, according to Leslie Root, a researcher at the University of Colorado in Boulder specialized in fertility and population policies.
“We consider that this is part of a continuous process of delay of fertility. We know that the population of the United States continues to grow and that we continue to have a natural increase, that is, more births than deaths,” he said.
The centers for the control and prevention of diseases of the United States (CDC, in English) published the statistics of the total fertility rate with updated data on births by 2024.
At the beginning of the 1960s, the total fertility rate of the United States was around 3.5 babies for each woman, but collapsed to 1.7 in 1976, after the end of the demographic explosion known in English as Baby Boom. He gradually increased to 2.1 in 2007, before falling again, except for a rebound in 2014. The rate in 2023 was 1.62 and lowered slightly in 2024 to 1.59, according to the National Health Statistics Center of the CDC.
Birth rates are generally decreasing for women in most age groups, and it does not seem likely to change in the near future, according to Karen Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center of the University of North Carolina.
People marry later and are also worried about their ability to have money, medical insurance and other resources necessary to raise their children in a stable environment.
“Concern is not a good feeling to have children,” and that is why birth rates in most age groups are not improving, he said.
(More women over 40 are having children and the number of adolescents who give birth) falls
When questioned about the measures to promote birth leaning by the Trump administration, Guzzo replied that they do not address more important needs, such as parental permit and affordable child care.
“The measures they are taking are really symbolic and they are not likely to change the situation of Americans on foot,” he said.
Increased births in new data
The new CDC report, which is based on a more complete review of the birth certificates than the provisional data published earlier this year, also showed a 1% increase in births – about 33,000 more – last year compared to 2023.
This raised the annual national total to just over 3.6 million babies born.
However, this is different: provisional data indicated an increase in birth rate last year between women between 20 and 30 years. However, the new report revealed a decrease in the birth rate between those between 20 and 30 years, and no change among those of more than 30 years.
What happened? CDC officials indicated that it was due to new calculations derived from a change in population estimates of the United States census used to calculate the birth rate.
That is plausible, Root added. As the total population of women of fertile age grew due to immigration, the small increase in births among women in those age groups was compensated, he said.
