The failed forecasts – El Financiero

Making forecasts in the world we live in is a bit lazy.

I think the only thing certain is that almost all of them are going to fail.

Above all, when it comes to anticipating the behavior of the economy… or the results of a vote.

I mention the above because the International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday adjusted upwards its economic perspective for USA.

In his January forecasts he pointed to 2.1 percent growth for the North American economy this year, and now he points out that will be 2.7 percent.

In the case of Mexico, the adjustment was in the opposite direction. In January it estimated a growth of 2.7 percent and now He puts it at 2.4 percent.

By 2025, it assumes that the United States will now slow down, and will grow only 1.9 percent, while The Mexican economy will grow only at a rate of 1.4 percent.

Not long ago there was discussion about the risks of a recession in the United States due to high interest rates. Now, with high rates that will take longer to fall than previously thought, there is only talk of a slowdown…but for next year.

Wow, it seems that the world is upside down.

In the case of Mexico, the IMF was one of the institutions that became most optimistic in the first months of this year, anticipating the effect that the nearshoring.

But, realizing that the impact of new investments is going to be slower than imagined, it removed three tenths from its growth outlook.

By 2025, it is not strange that the growth estimate will drop a full point compared to its forecast for 2024.

The fiscal adjustment that is expected to occur next year after this year's expansionary policy, will have a negative effect on the dynamics of productive activity.

But, as I said earlier, there are a large number of variables that are tinged with uncertainty.

Let's take the geopolitical environment.

We do not know what will happen with the course of the two main military conflicts that occur in the world. It is uncertain whether Russia will have greater success in Ukraine and what the consequences would be.

Is even more uncertain what is going to happen in the Middle East. Although Iran had tried not to intervene directly in the war, after the incursion with drones and missiles, in retaliation for the attack on its consulate in Syria, it is now unclear what Israel's response will be and the repercussions it will have.

But, it is not the only uncertainty.

At a global level, something that is going to weigh a lot is the results of the presidential election in the United States.

An important change will occur if Trump returns to the White House and if he manages to control the Houses of Congress.

Obviously it would affect Mexico in a very direct way, depending on the policies it undertakes both in the immigration field as well as in commercial and technological matters.

The level of aggressiveness against China can affect the arrival of investments from that country, one of the most important phenomena in recent years in the country.

No way, the IMF has to present, as always in its assemblies, its perspectives.

But Don't take them too literally. Well, they are surely going to make mistakes, as always happens.

I rather suggest you be attentive to the environment and have the necessary agility to adjust your decisions based on what you observe.

I will talk to you about the electoral forecasts on another occasion.