The statements of the outgoing president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador Almost no one has liked the so-called “pause” in relations with USAour main trading partner and where the largest amount of remittances is received, only provides evidence that more than a declaration is needed for ties to stop flowing.
However, it is a fact that, although it will be in two years, the revision of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC) in 2026 generates concern among investors and companies in the region, discouraging new investments, and these statements do not help at all.
The same researchers of the Woodrow Wilson Center They believe that there is already concern among investors (and that was before AMLO’s unfortunate comments), and it is something that needs to be followed up on.
Although various industries involved, such as the automotive industry, believe that it is unlikely that the agreement will not be renewed, there is a “real risk” that this might happen, which would have serious economic consequences for the three countries, as noted by one of the Center’s researchers, Diego Marroquín.
The chances are low, but they are very real. The benefits of the USMCA are so obvious that it would be very difficult or irrational not to renew the agreement and everyone knows that, but ‘the devil is in the details’, have commented the participants in the production chains and in one of the most important industries, as I mentioned, which is the automotive industry.
The mere possibility of non-renewal is already having a negative effect on long-term investment decisions, which, together with the environment that has been created with the statements and the judicial reform that is advancing in Congress, have caused too much uncertainty among large investors, some bankers have also confided, who assure that the calls do not stop to find out first-hand how the country sees itself in this transition and to express their concern about how the closing of the six-year term is going.
In the case of the T-MEC, which will have to do Marcelo Ebrard as next Secretary of Economythere is a sunset clause that establishes periodic reviews of the agreement, which could have a “chilling effect” on investments if not handled properly, since if this annual review process is activated, it would definitely have a negative effect on investment, because there would no longer be any certainty of being able to take advantage of preferential tariff treatment through the USMCA.
Defense of the SCJN
The lengthy labor lawsuits that, as you may recall, were sought to be changed in the law that was approved on the subject, do not mean that long processes will not continue to be presented to resolve unjustified dismissals between employers and workers, such as the case of the worker Jesús Curiel Reyes.
Curiel was fired by the company Sapporo Carswhich led to a labor trial in which he demanded payment of compensation for unjustified dismissal, lost wages, seniority bonus, vacations, the proportional part of the Christmas bonus and profit sharing, among other benefits, the same process that he won.
Unfortunately, while the trial was underway, the father of the family died, so his wife and children filed a procedural substitution incident to be designated as his beneficiaries, but the Local Conciliation and Arbitration Board resolved the procedural substitution incident, declaring it unfounded and leaving the family helpless.
Now the appeal filed, which is being analyzed by the Second Chamber, must determine the scope of article 123, section A, in its section XXVIII, of the Constitution, specifically insofar as it provides for the simplification of the formalities of inheritance trials, in relation to article 115 of the Federal Labor Law, and it is there where the draft judgment of the minister Alberto Perez Dayan proposes to protect the family.
This is because the deceased acquired the right to payment of the amounts described in the award issued by the responsible Board, which is an inalienable right of a patrimonial nature that is transmitted to his heirs, a case without a doubt worth following.
Automotive chains grow
These plans were designed long before, because the automotive industry is one of the most important for the country and where there is confidence that demand will be maintained, and that is where HSBCwhich carries Jorge Arcebet to finance.
Tire Direct Groupa tire distributor in the country, received a credit line for 60 million dollars to build a production plant in Irapuato, with its Chinese partner Sailun Groupwhich will invest a similar amount.
HSBC Mexico granted a line of credit equivalent to 1.6 billion pesos to the Mexican tire distribution company, Grupo Tire Direct, which will allow it to build a tire production plant in the country, and its production will be focused on meeting the needs of Mexico and the rest of the continent, with approximately six million units.
It is estimated that the tire plant will begin operating in 2025 and will generate around 1,400 direct and indirect jobs. We will be seeing this plant soon.
Edomex, pending tenders
And while the discussion about Chinese participation in the Mexican automotive market develops, we are assured that the administration of Delfina Gomez In the State of Mexico, it has no influence or interest in promoting the company. Matukof Ramon Abraham Matukto participate in processes to introduce eastern electric vehicles to the state of Mexico. The signs remind us that Abraham Matuk was a supplier to the public security area of the federal government during the time of Felipe Calderón. In any case, the Ministry of Mobility of the State of Mexico will be aware of this and any acquisition process that has to do with the local administration.
For now, the coin is up in the air.
