T-MEC 2026: US will put pressure on Mexico to reduce its trade ties with China

As part of the T-MEC renegotiation in 2026, it is likely that The United States puts the trade relationship between Mexico and China on the table to the point of pressuring the country to decide between both nations, said Carlos Pascual, senior vice president, responsible for geopolitics and international affairs at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Within his participation in the Annual Summit of Indices and ETFs in Mexico 2024, the expert stated that the United States' strategy in its competition with China is to promote manufacturing and industry. Therefore, the relocation of companies to Mexico and Latin America favors it.

In this sense, he said that the fact that China comes to Mexico with a production base to export to the United States It is going to be a very complicated point to review the trade agreement that unites North America, in which the automotive sector will play a very relevant role.

“In the renegotiation of the T-MEC it may be certain that, whether Democrat or Republican, one position that the United States is going to take is that they are going to force a decision: you are with the United States, which receives 80 percent of your exports, or you are with China,” he warned.

Precisely about the nearshoringElijah Oliveros-Rosen, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, noted that this trend has been reflected, first of all, in non-residential construction investment in the north and the Bajío, with a growth of 20 percent. last year, something not seen in several decades.

The second stage is the arrival of new foreign companies to national territory; However, this has been a slow process that is not reflected in the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) data. This would respond to obstacles such as sufficient clean energy, human capital, problems in water supply and insecurity, among others.

Regarding the clean energyCarlos Pascual pointed out that businessmen must be included, but “there must be a model of creating trust in the private sector so that they are prepared to come to Mexico and invest. To do that they have to resolve the disputes that have been seen in recent years.”

He added that “there is no confidence in the rule of law, contracts and that is going to be fundamental moving forward.” Likewise, he maintained that industrial and economic integration between Mexico and the United States must advance so that the energy transition is faster.