MIAMI.- Tropical Storm Sara, currently located in the western Caribbean, would probably not reach Florida as a hurricane next week, according to the latest meteorological projections.
Although the situation remains fluid, several factors suggest that the impact on the state could be less severe than initially feared.
Planned trajectory and intensity
Sara formed on Thursday in the Caribbean Sea, approximately 205 miles east-southeast of Guanaja Island, Honduras.
The storm has maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour and is moving west at a speed of 12 miles per hour.
It is expected to make landfall in Honduras between Friday and Saturday, and then remain stationary near the Honduran coast over the weekend.
This prolonged period over land will likely significantly weaken the system.
Impact as a hurricane
Several elements reduce the probability that Sara will impact Florida as a hurricane. Its interaction with the mainland when passing through Honduras and possibly the Yucatan Peninsula would reduce its intensity.
In addition, atmospheric conditions, such as the presence of high pressure over the Atlantic, could limit its movement northward, according to experts.
After possible re-entry into the Gulf of Mexico, Sara would have little time over warm waters to strengthen before approaching Florida.
Although Sara is unlikely to impact Florida as a hurricane, state residents should remain vigilant.
Possible effects could include heavy rain on the Florida peninsula around Tuesday, moderate winds and an increase in coastal waves.
Recommendations
Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center, warned that “it is too early to determine what impacts this system could bring to parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba during the middle of next week.” .
Authorities urge Florida residents to stay informed about Sara’s evolution and to be prepared for any changes in weather conditions.
Although the threat of a hurricane appears to be decreasing, the situation could change, so it is essential to stay tuned for official updates in the coming days.
Active season
The 2024 hurricane season has been exceptionally active and devastating for the Caribbean and Florida, exceeding all initial forecasts and setting several historical records.
From August through November, a series of powerful tropical systems have battered the region, leaving a trail of destruction and posing long-term recovery challenges.
Florida has experienced an unprecedented impact with three hurricanes making landfall in a single year: Debby, Helene and Milton. This equals a dismal record seen in only five seasons since 1871.
Debby, which impacted in early August, caused significant flooding in the Big Bend region. Helene, a Category 4 hurricane that hit the state in late September, caused catastrophic destruction with at least 25 deaths and damage estimated at between $10.5 billion and $17.5 billion.
Milton, known as “the storm of the century,” hit in October as a Category 3 hurricane, compounding existing damage and complicating ongoing recovery efforts.
Most recently, Category 2 Hurricane Rafael threatened the region, intensifying concerns about the response and recovery capacity of affected areas.
Now, the possible formation of Tropical Storm Sara adds a new level of urgency to an already historic hurricane season.
