Russia’s war of aggression What is the situation in Ukraine before Trump takes office?






Russia’s war in Ukraine has lasted almost three years. Combat fatigue is increasing. Can the new US President Trump actually mediate, and where do the warring parties currently stand?

Donald Trump’s inauguration as US President is also eagerly awaited in Moscow and Kiev. Trump declared during the election campaign that he would be able to quickly create peace. Negotiations are expected shortly. Russia in particular is trying to improve its position on the battlefield beforehand. The most important questions and answers about the current situation:

What has Trump announced?

During the election campaign, the Republican claimed several times that he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours – without giving any specific details. Trump repeatedly referred to his supposedly good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but also with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. His approach appeared to be aimed at putting massive pressure on both parties to the conflict – or at least one of them – in order to force a quick peace.

That sparked concern that Trump might cut military support to Ukraine to reach negotiations. The fears were reinforced by skepticism within the Republican Party: Some there are of the opinion that the USA has already invested too much in the conflict, both financially and militarily. However, there are also staunch supporters of Ukraine.

Has Trump backtracked?

After his election victory, Trump expressed himself much more cautiously – during a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in early January, with a view to a possible end to the war, he said: “I hope that I have six months. No, I would hope “It’s much quicker than six months.” Trump’s designated Ukraine envoy, former General Keith Kellogg, is supposed to advance the project and has outlined initial ideas for implementation. They amount to a freeze in fighting along the current front line. Kellogg rejects Ukraine’s demand for NATO membership as a security guarantee.

How does Zelensky feel about Trump?

The relationship between Zelensky and Trump is not easy and has been strained, among other things, by Washington’s unusual publication of the contents of their phone call in 2019. The Zelensky administration was actually counting on a Democratic victory in the presidential election and had to quickly reorient itself after the Republican’s victory. Meanwhile, Kiev officials are taking every opportunity to assure that they see the incoming US president as an opportunity to end the war.

Zelensky himself dedicated part of his New Year’s speech to the new US president out of concern that the United States would deliver less money and weapons. He holds back from making harsh comments such as those directed at government representatives in Hungary and Slovakia or German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) – despite obviously different positions regarding Ukraine joining NATO or giving up Ukrainian territory. Kyiv is too dependent on Washington.

What is the situation at the front, is there movement?

Ukraine is under pressure on all fronts. The biggest problems are currently in the east of the country in the Donetsk region. The fall of the cities of Toretsk and Chasiv Yar is probably only a matter of time. The situation in Pokrovsk, an important transport hub, has also deteriorated dramatically. There is a threat of encirclement. To the south, Russian troops have paved the way to the neighboring Dnipropetrovsk region. Only a few kilometers separate them from entering the industrial region.

Meanwhile, in the north, the situation around the city of Kupyansk is precarious. The city in the Kharkiv region, which was liberated from the Ukrainians in autumn 2022, is considered strategically important with its location on the Oskil River. The river is actually supposed to slow the advance of the Russians, but they have already crossed the obstacle north of Kupyansk and are expanding their bridgehead on the west bank. But Moscow also lacks the strength to make a decisive breakthrough at the front.

What is the situation in the Kursk region of Russia?

In the western Russian region of Kursk, where the Ukrainians were able to capture around 1,000 square kilometers in a surprise counter-offensive in the summer, they are now retreating again. According to even benevolent Ukrainian estimates, only a little more than 400 square kilometers of the originally occupied area remains.

An advance that was initially marked as a new offensive at the beginning of the year turned out to be a limited attack in which the Ukrainian troops were not even able to establish themselves in the neighboring town. The Russian units – also supported by North Korean soldiers – advance regardless of their own losses. Moscow also uses air force and bombs against Russian towns, despite the fact that its own civilian population remains there. It is foreseeable that the Ukrainians will have to withdraw here in the next few months.

What can be negotiated?

Security guarantees are essential for both sides. Ukraine wants guarantees that Russia will not invade them again. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, will insist that Ukraine cannot join NATO. In addition, Moscow will want to secure leverage for further influence in the country by guaranteeing the rights of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine.

Ukraine will hardly want to officially give up its territories occupied by Russia. Recently, however, demands from Kiev that the Russians have to withdraw behind the border have practically fallen silent. Putin wants to keep his conquests in order to present a victory to his compatriots. Since the Russians believe they have an advantage, they may make further territorial claims. Nationalist circles are calling for the annexation of the Russian-speaking regions of Kharkiv and Odessa.

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