MIAMI.- Sixty-eight percent of likely Cuban-American voters in Miami-Dade County said they would mark former President Donald Trump’s name on the November ballot, according to Florida International University’s (FIU) Cuba 2024 Poll.
The 2024 FIU Cuba Poll found that 23% of Cuban Americans plan to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris, while 5% are undecided. This 68% represents the highest approval rate on record for Trump among Cuban Americans, according to the FIU Cuba Survey, the country’s oldest study of the Cuban community, conducted since 1991.
Previous years
In 2016, Trump’s approval was 35%, while in 2020 it was 59%. The 2024 approval rating is also higher than the actual Cuban-American vote Trump received in the last two presidential elections.
“It seems that the Trump train is still picking up passengers on Calle Ocho,” said Guillermo Grenier, principal investigator of the Cuba Survey and professor of sociology in the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at the Steven J. Green School of International Affairs and Publics, which sponsors the study together with the Cuban Research Institute of FIU.
Born outside of Cuba
“Cuban Americans born outside of Cuba are the exception; “The Cuban-American community remains loyal to the Republican Party and the Trump version of the party,” Grenier commented.
The Cuba 2024 Survey surveyed 1,001 Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County by telephone between September 25 and October 9. Questions about the election were directed only to likely voters, American citizens.
Although Republicans maintain a majority among registered Cuban American voters (55%), those born outside of Cuba show greater diversity in their political affiliation: 38% are Republicans, 33% are Democrats, and 26% are independents.
Other topics
In the Florida Senate elections, Republican Senator Rick Scott is expected to receive 50% of the Cuban American vote, while his rival, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, would receive approximately 19% of decided voters. A significant 22% undecided could make the Senate race closer than expected, considering the strong prior support Scott has received from this community.
On issues of US policy towards Cuba, there are marked differences between Republican and Democratic supporters regarding the country’s main problems.
For Republicans, the key issues in order of importance are: (1) the economy, (2) immigration, (3) access to health care, (4) relations with China, (5) relations with Russia , (6) relations with Cuba, (7) race relations, (8) accessibility to assault weapons and (9) access to safe abortion services.
For Democrats, the main issues are: (1) access to health care, (2) access to safe abortion services, (3) the economy, (4) accessibility to assault weapons, (5) race relations, (6) immigration, (7) relations with Russia, (8) relations with Cuba, and (9) relations with China.
The embargo
Regarding the US embargo on Cuba, 55% of Cuban Americans in South Florida support its continuation, although they also show support for rapprochement policies, such as the sale of food (61%) and medicines (69%) to the island. Support for the embargo falls to 43% among Cuban Americans not born on the island.
“This year’s results confirm a trend of support among Cuban Americans for a political approach that combines sanctions against the regime and a greater commitment to the Cuban people,” explained Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the FIU Cuban Research Institute.
“Maintaining the US embargo is at the core of this approach, which largely explains Cuban Americans’ inclinations toward the Republican Party and strong support for Donald Trump’s policies.”
To read the full interview, click here: The 2024 FIU Cuba Poll
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