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As the United States recovers from the intense season of colds and flu of last winter, there is a respiratory disease that experts continue to watch closely: COVID-19. Historically, coronavirus cases in the country have increased twice throughout the year, one in winter and one in summer. And 2025 does not seem to be the exception.
In addition, the virus causing COVID-19, the SARS-COV-2, continues to evolve. Earl this year, a highly contagious variant appeared, called NB.1.8.1. The new strain has already been detected in several states, provoking concern among some experts.
Every year since 2020, Covid-19 cases have reached their maximum point in the United States between June and August. Last summer, the variants Flirt They promoted an increase throughout the country, the second largest wave registered in the United States since the pandemic began.
Many respiratory viruses, such as flu and the syncitial respiratory virus (VRS), follow predictable seasonal patterns, reaching its peak around the same time during autumn and winter.
The COVID-19, however, does not have a definite station and may arise throughout the year at different times, according to the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC).
“In recent years, there have been waves of COVID-19 during the end of the end of the summer,” explained Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at the Medical Center of the University of Vanderbilt.
However, the moment and severity of the waves of COVID-19 can vary.
Last winter, the United States experienced a “silent wave” of COVID-19 during the holidays. After a spring pause, experts warn that the cases are likely to increase again in the coming months, but it is not clear when, and this time the country may not be so prepared.
The public attitude and the response of the Donald Trump government before the Coronavirus have changed. “People have become quite indifferent to COVID-19,” Schaffner said. Earlier this year, the Administration stopped sending free kits for homemade COVID-19, and new vaccination guidelines can limit access to immunizations in autumn.
This is what you have to know about the new NB.1.8.1 variant and what can be expected this summer, according to experts.
Will there be a wave of COVID-19 this summer?
Experts predict that, based on previous trends, there will be a rebound in coronavirus cases from here to August. “It is possible that COVID-19 has not yet settled completely in an annual pattern (predictable), but the truth is that it has shot in the last four summers, and we anticipate that this will happen again in this,” said Schaffner.
However, it is too early to know when the wave of COVID-19 will reach its high point and what will be its severity compared to previous years.
CDC no longer accounts for the total number of new cases in the United States, so wastewater data is an increasingly valuable tool to understand virus trends, explained Dr. Marlene Wolfe, Wastewaterscan principal researcher.
“We still do not see that no significant rising trend is taking place, but we will continue to observe this close,” said Wolfe. Until May 28, the Viral activity levels of COVID-19 in wastewater were “low” nationwide, according to CDC data. However, this is expected to change.
The COVID-19 spreads during the summer due to several factors. The Sars-Cov-2 virus mutates easily and seems to adapt better to the warm and humid climate than other respiratory viruses, experts said.
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The immunity of the population, either by vaccination or for a previous infection, also tends to decrease in summer, said Dr. Andy Pekosz, professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the Bloomberg Faculty of Public Health of the Johns Hopkins University.
“The more time passes from the last wave or vaccination campaign, the more people it will be susceptible,” Pekosz confirmed.
The acceptance of the COVID-19 (2024-2025) vaccine, launched last fall, has been relatively low. Until April 26, only 23% of adults had received immunization, according to CDC.
“So summer will be a time when the population will be more or less ready for another wave of COVID-19,” Pekosz added.
Another factor that influences the propagation of coronavirus in summer is the increase in travel and social meetings in closed spaces with air conditioning. In the past, the waves of this era used in part to the appearance of new variants, the CDCs told.
Currently, the variants that circulate in the United States are descendants of Jn.1, an omicronistic strain that emerged last summer, Pekosz explained. Until May 28, the LP.8.1 variant was the cause of 70% of infections in the country, they added CDC data.
However, a new variant is drawing attention.
The new variant NB.1.8.1
A highly infectious variant called NB.1.8.1 has been detected in several states, including California, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia and New Yorkaccording to the database of the world initiative to share all the data on the flu (Gisaid).
The first cases were detected at the beginning of this spring through international traveler control programs at airports.
Dr. Michael Hoerger, an associate professor at the Faculty of Medicine at the University of Tulane, said that the NB.1.8.1 virus recently caused great brown brown in China and other parts of Asia.
On May 23, the World Health Organization (WHO) appointed the NB.1.8.1 as a “variant under surveillance” due to its worldwide propagation and its mutations, which can increase its transmissibility.
NB.1.8.1 It is a recombination of XDV.1.5.1, according to WHO. It is similar to the dominant variant LP.8.1, but it has additional mutations of the spike protein, which could affect its ability to evade immunity.
Like other Omicron strains, the NB.1.8.1 is very contagious, but it is still early to know if it is more transmissible than other variants.
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Until now, there have been very few sequences of NB.1.8.1 in the United States so that the variant is added to the CDC variants panel. “It is still in the early stages of appearance,” Pekosz added.
The decline of evidence and sequencing is making it difficult to monitor new variants in real time. “We do not have the same amount of information as at the beginning of the pandemic,” Wolfe added.
It is not clear if the NB.1.8.1 will be generalized in the United States or if it will cause a summer wave. “If you take off here, you can affect at the time of the summer peak, causing you to arrive before. But the COVID-19 is unpredictable, so that is my best assumption,” said Hoerger.
Is the most serious NB.1.8.1 variant?
Until now, there is no evidence that NB.1.8.1 causes a more serious disease. “Current data does not indicate that this variant causes a more serious disease than other variants in circulation,” the WHO said.
The global risk posed by strain NB.1.8.1 is considered “bass,” added the WHO.
Although omicron strains such as NB.1.8.1 are very contagious, they do not seem to cause more hospitalizations than the previous variants. “These more recent variants tend to cause a considerable amount of minor infections,” said Schaffner, who added that this is partly due to the high immunity of the population.
“More than 90% of people living in the United States have had previous experience with COVID-19,” said Schaffner.
Hoerger added that NB.1.8.1 is “something we should monitor, but it is difficult to say what the effect in the United States will be.”
Symptoms of the variant NB.1.8.1
The symptoms of the new NB.1.8 variant are similar to those of other more recent omicrum variants. According to CDC, Covid’s common symptoms include:
- Cough
- Sore throat
- Nasal congestion or secretion
- Fatigue
- Fever or chills
- Headache
- Body pains
- Difficulty breathing
- Diarrhea
- New loss of sense of taste or smell
Symptoms can vary from one person to another.
People of all ages can seriously get COVID-19, but some groups are more likely to develop a serious illness, the CDC added. Among them are people over 65, infants and immunosuppressed people or underlying diseases.
“From what we know, the risk of prolonged COVID-19 also continues to increase every time someone becomes infected,” said Hoerger.
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Should you get vaccinated against COVID-19?
The COVID-19 vaccine helps protect people from serious diseases, hospitalization and death.
Covid-19 vaccines current, launched last fall, are directed to the Jn.1 variant their descendant, Kp.2. These are still available and are recommended after 6 months of age, according to the CDC.
Before a possible summer rebound, should it be vaccinated? “I would recommend to anyone who has not been vaccinated recently to do it if you can,” Hoerger said.
“High-risk people are recommended to be vaccinated against COVID-19 before summer, in addition to the one that precedes the winter rise (in autumn),” Schaffner told Schaffner.
However, the new guidelines can make certain groups receive the new vaccines this fall.
COVID-19 vaccines updated by 2025-2026 will focus on the LP.8.1 strain, as the Food and Medicines Administration (FDA) announced, which differs from the recommendation of the Vaccine Advisory Committee of the agency to stick to the strains used in current vaccines.
The CDCs also do not recommend the vaccines of the systematic COVID-19 for healthy children and pregnant women, according to an advertisement of May 27 issued by the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. However, many obstetricians and pediatricians do not agree with this change, which could affect the coverage of vaccines by vaccines by insurance.
The new Vaccines of COVID-19 for healthy children and adults will have to go through clinical trials before being approved, which could take about a year, NBC News reported. However, updated vaccines of 2025-2026 should continue to be available for people over 65 years of age or with underlying diseases.
If you have questions about COVID-19 vaccines, talk to your doctor.
Thus can prevent COVID-19
When Covid-19 cases increase, people can take simple measures to protect themselves and their coronavirus families. “It is important to be prepared,” said Schaffner.
Experts recommend taking the following measures to prevent infection and avoid the spread of COVID-19 to other people:
- Keep up with the vaccines against COVID-19
- Do the test if you have symptoms
- Do the test if it was exposed to the virus
- Stay at home when you are sick
- Avoid contact with sick people
- Use a N95 mask in closed and busy spaces
- Practice social distancing
