In recent years, Child vaccination rates in the United States have descended and, with them, collective immunity levels. If these rates are maintained or continues to go down, measles, and even Some eradicated infectious diseases, such as rubella or polyomyelitis, could reappear.
This is the forecast of a study conducted by researchers from the Stanford University Faculty of Medicine, Californiatogether with the Baylor College of Medicine, the Rice University and the Texas A&M University, and published Thursday at the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).
The investigation warns that the recent measles outbreak recorded in western Texas, which infected more than 620 people and forced hospitalized to 64 and caused the death of two children, is an advance of what can happen.
The study, which used large -scale epidemiological models to simulate the propagation of infectious diseases in the United States with different levels of child vaccination, predicting that, even with current vaccination rates, measles could be again endemic and circular by the US in two decades. And if vaccination continues to descend, it could happen before.
However, small increases in vaccination coverage would avoid it: only with measles, increase vaccination 5 % would reduce the number of cases sufficient to be at a safe distance to return to endemic levels.
The main authors, Mathew Kiang, attached professor of epidemiology and health of the population, and Nathan Lo, attached professor of infectious diseases, hope that the study will provide useful data for those responsible for making decisions that establish the vaccination policy.
The study in figures
In an interview with Kiang and what was published in Jama, the authors explain that the decrease in vaccinations began during the Covid-19 pandemic and that, since then, there is a “general tiredness with vaccines”, and “distrust and misinformation about its effectiveness and safety,” says Nathan.
To know what the impact of this trend will be, the authors did a study of diseases that, thanks to vaccines, have been eliminated in the United States, such as measles, polyomyelitis, rubella and diphtheria, which may have terrible complications, such as paralysis, congenital malformations or death.
The study used a large -scale epidemiological model with the entire US population to simulate how infections would spread under different vaccination conditions and revealed that, with current rates, using the average vaccination levels between 2004 and 2023, measles is already “on the edge of the disaster,” Kiang advances.
“If vaccination rates remain the same, the model predicts that measles can become endemic in about 20 years, which represents about 851,300 cases in 25 years, 170,200 hospitalizations and 2,550 deaths. It is not likely that the other diseases become endemic with the status quo,” incides.
Nathan explains that measles would become endemic because it is one of the most infectious diseases that exist, “so the number of people who have to be immune to prevent it from spreading is extremely high.”
In addition, the triple viral vaccine (measles, paper and rubella) has become especially controversial due to false studies that attacked their safety and related it to autism. “In addition, measles is more common throughout the world, so it is more likely that travelers bring it with them,” he says.
Children, at risk due to diseases if vaccination drops
As for children, Kiang warns that “if vaccination decreased today even if it were 10 %, measles cases would shoot at 11.1 million in the next 25 years.”
In the event that vaccination rates were reduced in half, “we would expect 51.2 million measles cases, 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of polio and 200 cases of diphtheria in 25 years, which would cause 10.3 million hospitalizations and 159,200 deaths, in addition to about 51,200 children with neurological complications after measles Congenital defects due to rubella and 5,400 people paralyzed by polyomyelitis, “Kiang figure.
And in less than five years “measles would become endemic and rubella in less than 20. Under these conditions, polyomyelitis became endemic in approximately half of the drills in about 20 years,” forecasts.
By states, the study revealed that Massachusetts, which has high vaccination rates, would have a low risk, while California and Texas had a higher risk, because vaccination rates have decreased a lot.
As for people who present more risk, Nathan points to those who are not vaccinated, babies between 6 and 12 months and immunosuppressed people (a considerable segment of the American population).
Given these data, LO and Kiang underline the importance of trusting again in vaccines to combat diseases “that can be prevented.”
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