There are scenarios where the ‘re-elected’ president of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, could remain in power for months, possibly another year. But it is difficult to imagine any eventuality that would allow him to complete his mandate, which is due to end in 2031.
The question is not only when, but how his exit would be. Handcuffed? Feet first? Or escorted to a Learjet, where he would flee to a ‘friendly’ country that would guarantee immunity, impunity and the physical integrity of Maduro, his family and perhaps some (accomplices) from his inner circle?
But the most painful question is how many deaths will there be before the transition finally takes place, considering the current diaspora of almost 8 million Venezuelans?
And, in fact, one of the reasons Maduro lost the support of leftist governments, which would otherwise have come to his defense, is the eventuality of a tsunami of Venezuelans fleeing their country, dramatically increasing the humanitarian crisis in the region.
In the case of the United States, the possibility of a migration crisis, less than 100 days before the presidential elections, would be the fundamental reason for the current policy of seeking Maduro’s departure. Two decades ago, the priority of the US government was to guarantee the flow of Venezuelan oil. This has changed dramatically, thanks in part to an effort by several tenants in the White House who sought the energy independence of their country.
Now, the handling of the migration crisis, which is exploding on the border between the United States and Mexico, could define who will be the next president of the United States. And Joe Biden’s government will surely not hesitate to take the necessary steps to find, as soon as possible, the exit of Maduro.
Not only to avoid the wave of migrants leaving Venezuela, heading towards the United States, but also to limit the questions raised about the secret negotiation that the White House made with Maduro at the end of last year in Qatar: in exchange for stopping sanctions on the Venezuelan oil industry, and returning Alex Saab, his front man, Maduro would release detained American consultants and allow a “competitive and supervised” presidential election.
It seems that Maduro wants to make Joe Biden look like a fool, something that the President of the United States will not allow less than 100 days before the presidential elections, where American democracy is at stake if Donald Trump wins.
It was therefore not surprising that, without waiting for the final vote tabulation records to be made public by the electoral authorities, as requested by antagonistic and allied countries, or seeking a multilateral consensus, the United States rejected the official results and congratulated Edmundo González as the winner of the contest. In addition, in the statement, it asks the security forces “not to become an instrument of political violence against citizens who exercise their democratic rights.”
The international community will also have no patience with Maduro and his authoritarian and repressive government, especially given their behavior in recent hours. Although, due to a single vote missing, the Permanent Council of the OAS did not get the 18 votes to approve the resolution on Venezuela, this does not mean that the pressure from the international community is not increasing, not only to make the minutes transparent, but to avoid violence against the opposition and its followers. In fact, the Secretary General of the OAS, Luis Almagro, requested the intervention of the International Criminal Court, demanding that an arrest warrant be issued to detain Maduro. “He announced a bloodbath. He is fulfilling it,” said Almagro. Additionally, the United States is already offering a million-dollar reward for the capture of Maduro, and several of his allies, accused of participating in the drug trafficking business.
It is only a matter of hours, of days. Violence and repression will increase. And with this the rejection of governments and the international community. Maduro is running out of allies. But the most dangerous threat is the situation of the presidential elections in the United States: candidate Kamala Harris needs the crisis in Venezuela to be ‘resolved’ to prevent the wave of migrants heading to the United States. She will seek an immediate, but more balanced solution: negotiating the departure of the president of Venezuela that guarantees his physical integrity, immunity and impunity. But if Donald Trump were to win, the possibilities of Maduro and his allies will be limited to allowing them to leave the Miraflores Palace in handcuffs or feet first.
But Maduro is leaving, he is leaving.
