Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in most polls. That doesn’t mean anything. Or almost nothing.
The most important statement of every serious pollster at the moment is: There is no way to predict who will win the election on November 5th.
Firstly, the race is too close. Secondly, everyone remembers the disastrous predictions from 2016 and 2020 all too well. And which pollster would have thought four weeks ago that Kamala Harris would be ahead of Donald Trump at the end of August? No one.
If you take together the results of all the polls after the successful party convention, Kamala Harris is leading nationwide – depending on the model – by one and a half to four percentage points. But that doesn’t play a big role, because it all comes down to the seven decisive states, the swing states.
