From five percentage points to 0.8 in just 14 days: Since Kamala Harris took over the candidacy from Joe Biden, Donald Trump has been losing approval. But the polls can be misleading.
Until two weeks ago, almost everything indicated that Donald Trump could expect a second term as US President. The polls were in his favor, as was the (age-)weak man in the White House, Joe Biden, and then there were those shots during the election campaign in Pennsylvania. As a survivor of an assassination attempt, the Republican seemed to be finally invincible.
But then Biden announced that he would withdraw as presidential candidate, and suddenly the 2024 US election campaign became exciting again.
Kamala Harris narrowly behind Donald Trump
At least in the polls, Trump is losing ground significantly since it became clear that US Vice President Kamala Harris will run for the Democratic Party: On average, he is still leading by 0.8 percentage points – a very slim lead compared to the almost five percentage points that Trump had ahead of Joe Biden.
Meanwhile, there are also increasing numbers of individual polls in which Harris is ahead of the former president, for example at CBS News/YouGov: Here she has a lead of one percent.
The election will be decided in seven swing states
However, the results of individual polls and the poll average can be deceptive in the US electoral system. This is because the presidential election is essentially decided in the few states that are not clearly on one side or the other politically. Currently, seven states are included in this category. These include, as was the case four years ago, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Anyone who wants to move into the White House should win there. Here, however, the Republican is ahead everywhere, sometimes quite clearly, as in North Carolina with almost six percentage points. In Wisconsin and Georgia, however, his lead is shrinking slightly. Because these “swing states” will be decisive, Harris is also starting her campaign tour in the contested east coast state of Pennsylvania.
Presidential election on November 5
Harris has not yet been officially confirmed as the Democratic candidate for the election on November 5. However, her party has already announced that it has received enough votes in the US Democrats’ electronic vote for her official nomination. She will then be officially chosen at the nominating convention from August 19 to 22. The actual US election will then take place on November 5.
Sources: Realclearpolitics, CBS, Fivethirtyeight, AFP, DPA
