Let’s go, Joe? Or Let it go, Joe? How much has the botched TV debate damaged Biden? Is he leaving the field? Who could make him do so? And when, how and for whom?
Table of contents
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How much has the TV debacle hurt Biden so far?
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Who influences Biden?
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Could Joe Biden be forced to resign?
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By when would the change have to be completed?
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Why is Kamala Harris the logical alternative?
The only time the TV duel between Biden and Trump was worse to watch was during a European Championship match between the English national football team.
The debate about whether the 81-year-old is too old for the job as the most powerful man in the world is gradually becoming older than he is. But after the disastrous appearance in front of more than 50 million television viewers, it is more urgent than ever.
“You answered every question,” Jill Biden praised her husband after the CNN debate in front of supporters who were trying to be euphoric. A compliment, more painful than a slap in the face. She could also have said: “Darling, you didn’t faint! Amazing!” But what else could the First Lady have said? Compared to her husband, who was at best stuttering and at worst completely lost, Donald Trump seemed like a sprightly Boy Scout on Ritalin withdrawal.
“Let’s Go, Joe!” was written in white on blue behind the Bidens. “Let it go, Joe” would have been more appropriate in the view of many shocked Democrats. Could that really happen? And if so, how?
How much has the TV debacle hurt Biden so far?
The national and international media response was unanimously devastating. The bare numbers also speak volumes. According to a joint survey by the New York Times (NYT) and Siena College, Biden lost three percent of his registered voters to Trump – never before has the gap between the two candidates been so large.
A few days after the fiasco, the 24 Democratic governors united behind their president. “The president has always supported us. We will support him too,” said Maryland Governor Wes Moore after the crisis meeting in the White House. It is possible, however, that the demonstrative solidarity is just meant to offer Biden a way out to save face. Instead of hiding like a kicked dog, he could sell his departure as a retreat for the good of the party.
Because they already exist, the first defectors. 14 well-known Democrats have now publicly doubted Biden’s suitability, two of them have openly advised the president not to run. More dangerous than a few stabs in the back, however, would be a dip in his wallet. As the NYT reports, the first major donors are increasingly putting pressure on Biden, even threatening to stop cross-party payments. Influential patrons such as Netflix founder Reed Hastings have publicly called on Biden to resign. Disney heiress Abigail E. Disney assured in an email that the Democrats “will not receive another cent from me until they bite the bullet.” And the most expensive phase of the election campaign is still to come.
Who influences Biden?
Biden is one of the most experienced politicians in the country, having been part of Washington’s power elite for more than half a century. He is aware of the magnitude of his defeat. Nevertheless, he still seems convinced that he is the only one who can prevent the Trumpocalypse. And as long as his closest confidants see it the same way, he will stick to it.
The First Family met last weekend at Camp David, the presidential country estate, for what was supposedly a long-planned family weekend. There, the Bidens are said to have encouraged their husband, father and grandfather to keep going. In fact, Jill Biden in particular is likely to have the greatest influence on the ailing incumbent. Aside from the family, former Chief of Staff Ron Klain, lawyer Mike Donilon and his long-time advisor Ted Kaufmann also belong to the club of presidential whisperers. The news website Axios describes the inner circle as the “kitchen cabinet”.
Could Joe Biden be forced to resign?
Theoretically yes, practically no. The simplest thing would be for Biden to step aside of his own accord. Biden would not be able to choose his successor directly. Instead, he would have to release the almost 3,900 votes collected by the delegates, who could then rally behind any new candidate. This procedure is called an “open convention” – an absolute rarity in recent US political history, the last one being in 1968.
If Biden refuses to voluntarily give up the reins despite the party’s rebellion, no one could take it from him without causing significant damage to his successor. The delegates who have already voted for Biden are actually required to keep their word. However, they are only bound by their conscience. If they come to the conclusion that Biden is no longer the best candidate in the interests of their voters, they could abandon him in the final stretch. However, it is extremely unlikely that the necessary majority will be found for this. Quite apart from the real-political consequences: the Democrats would tear each other apart in intra-party trench warfare. That would not only cost nerves, but above all time – and that is now becoming the most important campaign resource.
By when would the change have to be completed?
The Democratic presidential candidate will not be officially announced until the party convention in Chicago in mid-August. If the current president really does not drop the bombshell until then, he would rob a new candidate of valuable weeks. The task of getting the party base behind him, winning back disgruntled voters and, above all, winning over undecided voters is difficult enough without a ticking clock.
If Biden throws in the towel after his official appointment, that would still not be a free pass for Trump. If an elected candidate or his vice-president drops out (or dies), the Democratic National Committee can appoint a new candidate in consultation with the congressional leadership and the governors’ association.
Why is Kamala Harris the logical alternative?
As things stand, anyone would be better than Joe Biden. Really anyone. According to a CNN survey, only one in four voters believes that the incumbent president would also be the most suitable next president. 75 percent are in favor of the Democrats anyone others set up.
Who could this Mr. or Mrs. Somebody be? There are a few names in the room: Governors like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or JB Pritzker, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or even former First Lady Michelle Obama (A closer look at the potential successors can be found here). There are good reasons why they don’t get involved – too unknown, too “sleazy” or simply no interest.
That leaves Kamala Harris. A lot of expectations were placed on the first female vice president in US history – of which she has so far only fulfilled a few. The 59-year-old is also said to have professional deficits. And whether she, as a black woman, can convince the decisive swing voters is at least questionable. Nevertheless, she would be the most obvious Biden heir. Not only because, according to current polls, she is currently only slightly behind Trump. Harris would also be the logical alternative from a purely pragmatic point of view. It would be easier for Biden to refer “his” delegates to his number two, which would save the Democrats a paralyzing power struggle. Harris could also draw on Biden’s ample campaign funds – which would be much more complicated with other candidates.
Ultimately, the coming days will probably decide Biden’s fate. If he slips up again publicly while he is still licking his wounds, he will probably be unstoppable.
Further sources: “New York Times”; “New Yorker”; “Politico”; AP; “Washington Post”; CNN