The impending inauguration of Donald Trump as US President on January 20th casts its shadow in Ukraine politics: In a “Time” interview published on Thursday, Trump deeply criticized the use of US missiles supplied for Ukrainian attacks on military targets in Russia. He thereby questioned the permission just given by US President Joe Biden and increased concerns in Ukraine and Europe that he could end military support for Ukraine after taking office. In Warsaw, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed Ukraine policy. In Berlin, Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned that decisions could be made over the heads of Ukrainians.
“I vehemently oppose sending missiles hundreds of miles to Russia,” Trump said in the interview. “Why are we doing this? We are only escalating this war and making it worse. This should not have been allowed.” Biden lifted the ban on Ukraine last month after Russia announced the deployment of up to 15,000 North Korean soldiers in the war against Ukraine. On November 21, Russia also fired a hypersonic ballistic missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro for the first time.
Donald Trump: uncertainty about his policies
Trump had already stated during the election campaign that he would like to end the almost three-year-old war quickly, but remained tight-lipped about the details. Asked if he would give up on Ukraine, Trump said: “I want to reach an agreement, and the only way to reach an agreement is not to give up.” He said the entry of North Korean troops was a “very complicating factor.” On Saturday he briefly met both Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris. There is concern in Kiev that Trump could negotiate a ceasefire with Russia at the expense of the invaded Ukraine. After the meeting, Zelensky warned that a ceasefire without security guarantees would be very damaging to Ukraine.
The Europeans, for their part, have been discussing for days how they can prepare for Trump and help Ukraine. Scholz visited Kiev last week, among other things, followed on Monday by Union Chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz. Not only Macron and Tusk, but also the finance ministers from Poland, France and Germany discussed in Warsaw on Thursday. In Berlin, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock received the foreign ministers of Poland, France, Great Britain, Spain and Italy as well as the new EU foreign policy representative Kaja Kallas.
During the consultations between Ukraine’s western allies, it became clear that although plans for securing peace after a ceasefire are underway, concrete agreements are far from being reached. In Warsaw, Tusk emphasized that his country does not plan to send troops to Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees after a ceasefire. Macron came up with this idea. “There is no security in Europe without the Europeans,” he said after the meeting in Warsaw.
Baerbock: Ukraine needs tough security guarantees
According to Baerbock, Ukraine needs “tough security guarantees” and “long-term military and financial support.” It is now a matter of being able to “discuss the most diverse elements of peace in confidence,” she added, without giving details. It was said in government circles that Scholz definitely rejected sending soldiers to Ukraine during the war. It is too early to discuss sending European soldiers to provide future security guarantees. Merz also emphasized this.
Meanwhile, Russia supported an initiative by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for a Christmas ceasefire and a prisoner exchange with Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the proposal to exchange prisoners of war over the Christmas period had been sent to Ukraine, but it appeared to reject it. According to Peskov, Orban put forward his idea in a recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The EU states and the federal government have made it clear in recent months that Hungary only speaks for itself, even if the country holds the six-month EU Council Presidency until the end of the year. Orban is considered close to Moscow and therefore isolated among the 27 EU governments.
