Hurricanes increase mortality for years after they pass, according to a study

London.- A team of scientists has estimated that the impact of a tropical cyclone in the United States can cause a marked increase in mortality in the long term, leading to excess deaths of between 7,000 and 11,000 people, according to a study published in ‘Nature’.

The research, developed by the University of Berkeley and Stanford University -both in California-, found that excess mortality can last for about 15 years in the areas affected by these violent meteorological phenomena, which occur in the form of hurricanes. and tropical storms.

The main authors of the study, Rachel Young (Berkeley) and Solomon Hsiang (Stanford), analyzed the effect that 501 tropical cyclones (TCs) had after directly hitting the US coasts between 1930 and 2015.

Based on statistics collected by the federal government, they confirmed that a cyclone causes 24 direct deaths on average, although they detected that, when taking into account its ‘cascade effect’, indirect deaths can range between 7,000 and 11,000.

Likewise, they calculated that these cyclones represented around 3.2 and 5.1% of the deaths recorded on the Atlantic coast of the United States between the aforementioned 85-year period, that is, up to a total of between 3.6 and 5.2 million deaths.

Findings

These findings suggest that the impact of TCs, previously considered “unimportant for analyzes of general public health,” is a significant underlying factor in the distribution of mortality risk in these coastal areas, Young and Hsiang highlight in the text of the work.

Among the most affected, they specify, are babies (under one year old), people up to 44 years old and the black population.

Previous studies on the impact of natural disasters on populations, they recall, have focused their attention, above all, on the number of direct deaths, which in most cases is attributed to drowning in floods.

However, tropical cyclones are a common threat on US coasts, beyond the immediate damage they cause to infrastructure, the economy or society, with displacement of populations, for example.

They also represent, they warn, a long-term health problem, in which certain individuals see reduced access to healthcare or face an increase in the cost of living.

Causes of mortality

In this context, analysis of data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provided the authors with evidence that excess mortality is related to diabetes, suicide, sudden infant death syndrome or “other causes.” not registered”.

This list is followed by cardiovascular diseases and cancer as the most common causes of death, according to experts.

Young and Hsiang note that this study demonstrates that tropical cyclones are associated with excess mortality, although they acknowledge that it does not identify the underlying mechanisms.

Therefore, they propose five factors that could explain this link.

“Economic damages caused by job losses or expenditures required for post-cyclone repairs could, for example, reduce future health care spending,” they conclude.

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