The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially begins this Saturday, is expected to be one of the most active and intense in decades, with up to 13 hurricanes forming and concerns that the number of cyclones that make landfall It may be twice as much as usual.
It is such a high prediction forecast that the administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States, Rick Spinard, noted that it is “the perspective of highest hurricane season NOAA has ever issued”.
NOAA warned that there was an 85 percent chance that the storm season would be above normal, that is, between 17 and 25 storms with name and from 8 to 13 hurricanes, of them between 4 and 7 of major category.
These are figures that are well above the average per season, which is 14 named storms and seven hurricanesthree of them of higher category, and that if realized could turn this year's hurricane season in the Atlantic into one of the worst in decades.
'La Niña' and warm Atlantic waters will cause more storms
María Torres, NOAA meteorologist and director of communications for the National Weather Service, said that “a very important factor that favors the development of tropical systems this summer and fall are the hot ocean temperatures”.
This, in combination with the return in the Pacific of the 'La Niña' phenomenon, which “tends to reduce the shear winds, known as shear windsin the zone of system formation in the Atlantic”, makes “there is a higher probability of having more storms”, according to the expert.
Apart from the comparison of hurricane seasons, given that “each season is unique“, the important thing is that “we must be prepared and have a plan,” warned Torres, in reference to a cyclonic season marked by almost record ocean temperatures in these months.
Hugh Willoughby, professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Florida International University (FIU), was very concerned with the general forecasts and warned that “it is very likely that we will have one or two landings of really damaging phenomena on the American coast.” ”, with a cost in material damage of more than 30 billion dollars.
Both scientists agree that the conjunction of 'The Girl' and the overheated waters of the Atlantic are a combination that can be catastrophic for the exposed population in countries in the Caribbean, Central America or North America.
NOAA also referred to the possibility of the formation of a strong monsoon in West Africa that generates waves that feed powerful, long-lived storms in the Atlantic.
Furthermore, “human-caused climate change –NOAA alerts– is warming our oceans globally and melting ice on land, causing sea level rise” and may increase the risk of storm surges.
