After the third most expensive year for fuel, the ADAC does not initially expect any major jumps in fuel prices in 2025. From January 1, 2025, the CO2 price per ton will rise from the current 45 euros to 55 euros. The tax places a burden on the use of climate-damaging fuels, which is also noticeable at the pump. ADAC expert Christian Laberer expects that gasoline and diesel will become around three cents more expensive due to the increased CO2 price. But that won’t happen on the first day of the new year. Experience has shown that a smooth transition is to be expected. In addition, this price aspect can be overshadowed by other developments.
April 17th was the most expensive day for E10 gasoline
On average, consumers will have paid 1.74 euros per liter for E10 premium gasoline in 2024, according to Laberer, and 1.65 euros for diesel. The ADAC expert expects prices to remain stable in 2025, although forecasts are generally difficult. In addition to the price of oil, the exchange rate between the dollar and the euro plays a particularly important role. Last year this led to fluctuations well over 20 cents: for E10, April 17th was the most expensive day with a nationwide daily average of 1.867 euros per liter, for diesel it was February 13th at 1.767 euros. The cheapest was E10 on October 1st at 1,631 euros, diesel on September 18th at 1,523.
Electromobility boom in China dampens oil hunger
Demand for oil is likely to remain subdued in 2025. One reason is the weakening economy in Europe, another is the boom in electromobility in China. “The times when China was the driver of global oil demand are likely to be over,” says Commerzbank expert Carsten Fritsch. The conflicts in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine caused uncertainty on the oil market. Because production in the major oil states has not yet been affected, this has not led to sustained higher prices. In addition, the future US President Donald Trump has announced that he will expand crude oil production, which could also depress prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also expects an oversupply of crude oil in 2025.
The geopolitical situation remains a major source of uncertainty. Tougher US sanctions against Iran could reduce supply. If the tariffs announced by Trump weigh on the global economy, this could in turn dampen oil demand.
2025 could even be a little cheaper
If, as Laberer expects, fuel prices in 2025 move primarily sideways and no major crises occur, the coming year could even be slightly cheaper than 2024. Most recently, fuel was a few cents cheaper than the annual average.
“Old price levels of 1.30 or 1.40 euros per liter of gasoline are hardly conceivable,” says the expert. Nevertheless, many consumers do not perceive the current prices as particularly painful – “simply because they have seen completely different things since the start of the war in Ukraine.” At that time, fuel cost significantly more than two euros per liter at times. The expert no longer expects anything similar, at least in the short term.
