Merchandise exports to the United States reached a record level during April, a factor that further consolidates Mexico's position as the main supplier of goods, according to figures revealed by the US Census Bureau.
Official data show that exports coming from Mexico They totaled 43 thousand 65 million dollars during the fourth month of the year, a figure that represents a maximum level never seen before in a single month.
In addition, this figure represented a growth of 13 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
Mexico It was also possible to maintain the main supplier of goods for the United States economy, being supported by this exceptional performance, accounting for 15.9 percent of the total imports of the neighboring country to the north.
On the other hand, Mexican exports reached a cumulative sum of 162,915 million dollars during the first four months of the year. This represents an increase of 6.2 percent compared to the same period in 2023.
This positive trend was also reflected in Mexico's market share, remaining at a level of 15.9 percent.
And what did Mexico receive from the US?
In the opposite direction, our country positioned itself as the second destination for the export of merchandise coming from the United States during April.
In said period, sales of US merchandise to Mexico reached a sum of 29,399 million dollarsthis represents an increase of 18.2 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
In accumulated terms, between January and April of this year, Exports from the United States to Mexico totaled 109,563 million dollarsa figure that represents an increase of 3.4 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.
Support T-MEC
Gerardo Tajonar, president of ANIERM, noted that these record numbers are a clear indicator that the strategy to incorporate Mexico as a substitute supplier of goods that previously came from Asia is giving very positive results.
Tajonar emphasized that the “impressive figures” show a balance of trade currently favorable for Mexico. Furthermore, he highlighted the importance of including crucial topics such as artificial intelligence, energy transition, clean energy, climate change, blockchain and carbon emissions in the upcoming T-MEC renegotiations scheduled for 2026.
“The governments of Mexico, the United States and Canada must work together to develop a integrated regional industrial policytaking as an example the case ofs chips and science act driven by the president bidenwhere a regional industrial policy was proposed and not by individual country,” he indicated.
Janneth Quiroz, director of economic analysis at Monex, attributed this upward trend in Mexican exports to two key structural factors: the T-MECwhich lays the foundation for favorable trade terms between the three countries, and the trade war between the United States and China.
“This has indirectly benefited Mexico by making it a closer alternative supplier,” he said.
Quiroz expressed an optimistic vision, estimating that the Mexican exports will continue to grow this year around seven percent, driven by these two structural elements and the phenomenon of nearshoring.
Waste potential
However, Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, He warned that despite the good data, Mexico is not taking advantage of the full potential of the commercial opportunity that China has left.
Siller noted that while China has lost 7.22 percentage points of participation in the US importsMexico has only gained two percentage points, which implies that our country has capitalized less than a third of the trade it has left behind. China.
He also highlighted a red flag in the latest data from foreign direct investment.
“In the first quarter of 2024, the United States recorded a historical maximum disinvestment of 616.2 million dollars in manufacturing parts for motor vehicles in Mexico. This could stop the increase in installed capacity and the exports in the long term if a better environment is not achieved for business and the investment attraction”, he warned.
The US will put pressure on Mexico, why?
Senior Vice President Carlos Pascual, head of geopolitics and international affairs at S&P Global Commodity Insights, warned that there is a possibility that The United States puts the trade relationship between Mexico and China on the tableto the point of pressuring the country to decide between both nations.
By participating in the Annual Summit of Indices and ETFs in Mexico 2024, the expert indicated that the United States' strategy in its competition with China aims to boost manufacturing and industry. Therefore, the relocation of companies to Mexico and Latin America favors it.
In this sense, he explained that the fact that China moves to Mexico with a production base to export to the United States would represent a very complicated point to review the trade agreement that unites North America, even the automotive sector will play a very relevant role.
“In the renegotiation of the T-MEC it may be certain that, whether Democrat or Republican, one position that the United States is going to take is that they are going to force a decision: you are with the United States, which receives 80 percent of your exports, or you are with China,” he mentioned.
