With the arrival of the holidays and the peak in travel, COVID-19 is increasing again throughout the country. However, this year’s winter surge of the virus has started later than usual and some experts warn of a possible “silent” rise in transmission over the holidays.
They call it “silent” because this winter surge comes after a long period of unusually low COVID-19 activity this fall, so many people are unaware that cases have risen sharply over the past two weeks, data shows latest wastewater updates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
As a result, people may not know that their risk of infection is increasing and may not get tested if they have only mild symptoms, which can cause the virus to spread at holiday gatherings, during travel, and elsewhere. .
As of December 14, wastewater viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – is “high” or “very high” in 21 states, according to CDC data.
“There are many probabilities that many people will get sick in the next two weeks and not be aware of it. “Most people aren’t following the CDC data, so their only way to know if we’re in a surge is if they’ve gotten sick,” Dr. Michael Hoerger, associate professor at the School of Medicine, tells .com. from Tulane University and a public health expert in tracking COVID-19 trends.
Although the data does not yet show that the United States is in the midst of a major wave of COVID-19, the country is entering its 10th wave since the pandemic began, Hoerger added.
But there is great uncertainty about the severity of this year’s surge and its duration. “This is a very risky time with many people interacting indoors, so we don’t really know how quickly transmission can increase,” Hoerger said.
Risk of “silent” transmission during holidays
COVID-19 levels in wastewater are lower than last winter at this point, but there has been a sharp rebound in the past two weeks, according to CDC data. And cases are likely to continue rising, experts say.
“As of Friday, December 20, COVID-19 levels in wastewater are moderate nationwide,” Dr. Jonathan Yoder, deputy director of the US Division of Infectious Disease Preparedness and Innovation, told .com. CDC. The previous week’s wastewater data was “low” nationwide. Levels are highest in the Midwest.
“Nationally, COVID-19 levels in wastewater have increased during the month of December, following a period of low levels in October and November,” Yoder added.
The CDC no longer tracks the total number of new COVID cases in the United States, but instead estimates transmission levels from wastewater surveillance, positive test results, and emergency room visits.
According to CDC data, positive COVID-19 test results are 5.6%, 0.5% more than the previous week. Visits to emergency wards and deaths related to COVID-19 are also increasing very slightly.
“The problem with this winter’s surge is that it is very different from previous ones,” Hoerger explained. In previous years, COVID-19 has followed a similar pattern: Cases spike in November, rise steadily, and peak in late December or early January.
“Normally, people would have had a month or so notice, seeing friends and family getting infected,” Hoerger said.
“Transmission was incredibly low in November, so people have a false sense of security,” he added.
COVID-19 levels are rising about a month later than usual, putting the country in “uncharted territory,” Hoerger explained.
“You can think of the beginning of the surge as a sort of period of silent transmission where people aren’t really aware of it, and it coincides with the start of holiday travel,” he said.
Hoerger, who is director of the Pandemic Mitigation Collective, which uses the COVID-19 forecast model, said that as of December 16, one in 64 people (1.6%) is actively infectious in the United States, and that there are about 750,000 new infections dailyand that these are increasing.
This wave of COVID-19 is coming late and “out of nowhere,” he wrote on the social network X.
Other experts agree that infections are expected to increase in the coming weeks.
“We anticipate that these holiday gatherings, travel and all of that will provide opportunities for an increase in COVID-19, as well as (flu) and RSV,” Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, told .com. Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
“This is a silent (transmission), because most of these infections are quite mild, so people don’t get tested or dismiss them as colds,” Schaffner stressed.
Although this year’s late summer COVID-19 surge provided some immunity to the American population, it’s probably starting to slow downthe experts stated. And the current variants circulating, including XEC and descendants of the FLiRT family, are highly transmissible.
“These current variants are causing many mild infections, which are largely undetected,” Schaffner said, adding that people with mild or asymptomatic symptoms can spread the virus to others.
“The communicability of these viruses is contributing to a silent epidemic, so to speak,” Schaffner stated.
COVID-19 viral activity in wastewater is currently “very high” in five states and “high” in 16 others, according to the most recent data from the CDC. The states with the highest levels of COVID-19 in wastewater as of December 14 are:
- Arizona
- Arkansas
- D.C.
- Illinois
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Kansas
- Kentucky
- Maine
- Massachusetts
- Minnesota
- Missouri
- Nebraska
- New Hampshire
- New Mexico
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Rhode Island
- South Carolina
- South Dakota
- Wyoming
“If you see increased levels of COVID-19 viral activity in wastewater in your area, it could indicate that there is an increased risk of infection“said Yoder.
However, regional variation in wastewater data also depends on the number and specific location of wastewater monitoring centers doing the monitoring, Hoerger explained. Some states lack data and others have only limited coverage. “Regional variation should be taken with a grain of salt,” Hoerger said.
Overall, decreased testing and delays in reporting can make it difficult to accurately track COVID-19 levels, experts said.
COVID-19 symptoms in 2024
According to experts, the symptoms caused by the dominant variants in circulation, XEC and KP.3.1.1, are very similar to those caused by previous omicron subvariants.
Common symptoms of COVID-19 include:
- Sore throat.
- Congestion.
- Runny nose.
- Cough.
- Fatigue.
- Headache and body aches.
- Fever or chills.
- Difficulty breathing.
- Nausea or loss of appetite.
- Diarrhea.
- Loss of the sense of taste or smell.
Symptoms vary from person to person. Even mild infections can be “debilitating” for several days, Schaffner said.
Although the latest COVID-19 variants appear to cause milder illness, they can still cause severe illness requiring hospitalization. Certain people are at higher risk of developing serious illness. Among them are those over 65 years of age, people with underlying diseases and those who are immunosuppressed.
Every time a person is infected with COVID-19, you are at risk of developing long COVID-19which can cause symptoms that persist and return for weeks or months after infection, according to the CDC.
Are the new COVID-19 booster vaccines effective?
The updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine is recommended by the CDC for everyone 6 months of age and older.
The new mRNA COVID-19 vaccine is monovalent, meaning it targets one variant, in this case, the KP.2 FLiRT variant. The strains currently circulating are closely related to KP.2, and the new booster should provide good protection, .com previously reported.
However, acceptance of the new vaccine has been low so far: Only 21% of adults in the United States have been vaccinated, according to the latest CDC data.
“The best protection is to get vaccinated. Although vaccinated people sometimes become infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, being up to date on COVID-19 vaccines significantly reduces the risk of becoming seriously ill, hospitalized, or dying from COVID-19,” Yoder stated. .
How to protect yourself against COVID-19
When COVID-19 levels rise, it is important for people to take steps to protect themselves and their families, according to the CDC.
You can take the following measures to avoid infection and prevent the spread of COVID-19 to others:
- Stay up to date on COVID-19 vaccines.
- Get tested if you have symptoms or have been exposed to the virus.
- Stay home when you are sick.
- Seek treatment for COVID-19 if you are in a high-risk group.
- Wear a mask.
- Practice social distancing.
