Instead of running for office himself, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now supporting Donald Trump. But the most important part of his plan threatens to backfire. The voting rights are to blame.
It was a clear statement: Last Friday, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. officially withdrew his candidacy for the US presidency – and announced his support for his former rival Donald Trump. But some states are thwarting his plans. Now this is jeopardizing Trump’s election victory.
This is mainly due to the close race and the complex US electoral law. Because US citizens do not directly elect their president, but only the electors of their states, every vote counts in contested states. Kennedy wants to help Trump win with one very specific measure in particular: he wants to have himself removed from the ballot papers, Kennedy announced as part of his resignation. His supporters should only be allowed to continue voting for him in states where the outcome is certain. But the removal is not as easy as he apparently imagined.
Robert F. Kennedy Junior: Candidate against his will
In the two US states of Michigan and Wisconsin, the relevant election commission rejected Kennedy’s application. “Candidates from minor parties cannot have themselves removed from the ballot,” a spokesman for the Michigan Secretary of State confirmed to NBC. His name will therefore remain on the ballot in the November election.
In Wisconsin, the election commission also rejected Kennedy’s request for a vote. “The statute literally says ‘Anyone who has filed the nomination papers and is qualified may not refuse the nomination,'” said commission chair Ann Jacobs. “It may seem strange, but we really have no leeway here.”
No decision has been announced in North Carolina yet. However, because the ballots have already been printed there, Kennedy’s removal from the race is also unlikely.
Donald Trump: Fearing for the majority
Current polls show how much influence Kennedy’s name could have on the ballot. According to the aggregation model of all polls by expert Nate Silver, the gap between the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was just 2.5 percent on Thursday – to Harris’ advantage. 4 percent of voters would have voted for Kennedy.
If he were to be removed from the ballot, Trump would benefit most, polls show – especially in the all-important swing states. In a poll commissioned by “The Hill,” Harris is currently 4.3 percentage points ahead of Trump in Wisconsin. This is exactly the same number of voters who would vote for Kennedy if he were on the ballot, according to the poll. But if he were not elected, Harris’ lead would shrink significantly: she would then be just three points ahead of the Republican candidate.
In Michigan, the picture is similarly clear: According to the Hill poll, Harris is leading by just three percent, while five percent of voters would prefer to vote for Kennedy. But if he is not running, Harris’ lead will drop to 2.3 percent.
The last US presidential election showed how decisive these few points can be: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 with a lead of just 0.63 percent of the vote – after Donald Trump had beaten Hillary Clinton there by 0.77 percent in the 2016 election. However, in both cases the polls had predicted the Democratic candidates to be significantly stronger. So even if only a fraction of Kennedy fans would rather vote for the eliminated candidate than for Trump, that could make the difference in the end.
Sources: NBC, The Hill, Axios, Nate Silver
