In the modern world, for a country that relies heavily on foreign relations, the idea of national sovereignty is very different today than it was 50 years ago.
But some politicians think that we are still in the times of the Cold War, anti-imperialist movements and support for Ho Chi Minh.
There are two facts that cannot be ignored today. The first is the deep economic relationship we have with the world.
Mexico’s foreign trade in the first quarter of 2024 was equivalent to 71 percent of GDP.
This means that a large part of the economic activity carried out in our country depends on foreign sources.
70 percent of all that commercial relationship corresponds to the United States.
But, in addition, the 52 percent of foreign direct investment so far in 2024 it comes from the United States.
We cannot ignore the effect that the internal decisions we make have on our northern neighbor.
We may hate them; we may abhor them, but We cannot ignore the implications that may exist of what we do in Mexico.
If we want to not be conditioned by what the Americans say… then let’s not be tied to them.
But, today There is no sensible person, even the supporters of the 4T, who thinks it is convenient to leave the USMCA so as not to be subject to their rules.
But it is not only the trade agreement with North America, it is also with Europe.
In the Treaty with the old continent there is a so-called “democratic clause”, which could be questioned based on the reforms of Plan C.
The second fact has to do with the commitments that Mexico has signed.
There are those who think that sovereignty means being able to decide whatever we want, as we please and without taking into account anyone abroad.
Sovereignty, for most countries in the world, is limited.
Each country makes the decision restrict it based on agreements, conventions and treaties international who subscribes.
The civility of a nation today depends to some extent on compliance with these restrictions on sovereignty.
For example, if Mexico decided send the Paris Agreements flying and contaminate whatever it wants, it would surely have a collapse in its foreign investment, but also lawsuits due to non-compliance with commitments.
Of course A country can rebel against its international agreements.
Russia did it by invading Ukraine; North Korea by continuing to test nuclear weapons; Israel by continuing to invade Gaza; and Venezuela, by even upsetting the opinion of its ‘friendly countries’ like Colombia or Brazil.
This is what Mexico can do. No one is stopping Claudia Sheinbaum from doing it.
The country would not end, but we would have a nation that makes the decision to marginalize itself from the international community.
It is possible to live like this. There are several examples, such as Russia itself, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Venezuela, among other cases.
Of course, the new government would have to forget about its goals.
Large infrastructure projects would have to wait for another time, as the government does not have the resources to undertake them. And private companies would be very hesitant to invest.
The government also does not want to implement tax reform to obtain the money it needs.
Besides, AMLO will leave a deficit of 6 percent of GDP or a little more, and spending will have to be cut if it does not want the rating agencies to downgrade the country’s sovereign rating.
The United States is slowing down and this will have an impact – in fact, it is already doing so – on Mexican exports.
As they say, we are in a very complex and compromised economic situation derived from AMLO’s proposals.
But you can always call on the ‘wise people’ to tell them to tighten their belts, economic improvement… will come at another time.
After publishing yesterday the text that I called: “President, you decide”, many told me that I was deluded, naive, stupid, for believing that Sheinbaum would differ from López Obrador.
Maybe so, but I still believe that The president-elect will not want to begin her term with a crisis.
Because if he continues supporting AMLO, he will have it.
Is there anyone who has authority over her and can explain it to her?
Don’t know.
