NBC News
With COVID-19 cases surging this summer, the arrival of updated vaccines in the fall raises an important question: Will they be distributed in time to make a difference?
COVID-19 surges have not followed a predictable seasonal pattern like the flu, which typically begins spreading in the fall and peaks in late winter and spring. Flu vaccines, which take two weeks to become fully protective, are typically recommended in September or October.
New COVID-19 vaccines targeting the KP.2 strain, a descendant of the highly contagious JN.1 variant that emerged last winter, are expected to be distributed in the coming weeks.
Even if vaccines become available in the next month, immunologists and infectious disease experts don’t expect them to have much of an effect on the current summer surge. Vaccines will be important, however, as the U.S. heads into fall and winter, when cases usually rise again.
“History tells us that if there is going to be a major new wave of COVID-19, it is more likely to happen in the fall than at this time of year,” said John Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College. “Looking back to 20/20, could it have been done sooner? It’s very hard to criticize the current plan because it is logical and reasonable.”
“In a way, you’re damned if you do and damned if you don’t,” he added.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 can surge throughout the year. Data from four years of the virus show it peaks in the winter — December and January — and also in the hot summer months of July and August. In 2024, cases began to rise in June and remain high, the CDC data tracker shows.
Despite the double waves, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has followed a routine similar to updating the annual flu vaccine. Vaccine experts COVID-19 strain selected in spring for a vaccination campaign in the autumn.
Ideally, public health officials would administer COVID-19 vaccines shortly before each wave to reduce transmission, infection and severe illness, according to Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University.
But until the U.S. gets a timetable, “maybe the right thing to do right now is to give two boosters a year, one in early summer and one in the fall,” he said, adding that the fall vaccine rollout timeline is a “good idea, but a tricky one.”
“Of course, these boosters have to be well adapted to the circulating variant,” he said.
In fact, in February, the FDA and CDC recommended a booster for people at higher risk of the most severe complications of COVID-19, primarily those over 65. The goal was to offer protection before another potential summer surge. Only about 10% of adults 65 and older received the two-dose booster in 2023-24, and the summer surge happened anyway.
Last fall, when CDC data showed a rise in hospitalizations, some doctors They criticized the FDA for waiting too long to introduce updated vaccines against COVID-19.
Has the FDA considered changing the fall vaccine distribution schedule, which is now early September?
In an emailed response, an FDA spokesperson referred NBC News to comments made by Ruth Link-Gelles, a CDC epidemiologist, during the FDA advisory committee meeting in June. Link-Gelles highlighted the difficulties in determining the optimal timing of COVID-19 vaccines.
“With influenza and RSV, we have years and years of data with very similar trends over time,” he said. “So you can’t pinpoint the exact time when those seasons are going to start, but you can get very close. With Covid, that’s not the case at all. In recent years we’ve seen spikes in the summer, in August. So it becomes a bit of a game to try to time the introduction of the Covid vaccine.”
According to Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Toronto, many people, including healthy young adults, would likely not need more than one COVID-19 vaccine per year.
“I think it’s impossible to make a blanket statement for a population of over 300 million people,” he said. “There are some people at risk of severe COVID-19 who have been a long time since their last vaccinations and who might be at higher risk, and perhaps in that situation a vaccine before the fall campaign is a reasonable idea.”
How long a person is protected against COVID-19 after infection can vary depending on several factors, including the severity of the infection, the strain, and the person’s age and health status. Studies have shown that protection can last three months or longer.
Dr. Ofer Levy, director of the Precision Vaccines Program at Boston Children’s Hospital, warned against a false sense of security among those who become infected during the summer surge.
Even if someone gets infected, vaccines will still be important, as theyNatural infection does not offer the same level of protectionLevy said.
“Does natural infection offer some protection? Yes, of course it does,” Levy said. “However, it is not the same level of protection that vaccines offer.”
Weill Cornell’s Moore said the FDA is right to stick to the fall schedule.
“I’m not trying to downplay what’s happening right now, but If there is going to be a bigger increase, it will be later in the year.“Moore stressed.
